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Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Another Huge Build; Total US Oil Inventories Highest Since October, 2017 -- EIA Weekly Report; Is US Producing At 13 Million BOPD? -- June 5, 2019

US production:
  • for newbies, 11 million bopd was an incredible milestone for the US to have reached
  • we've all been waiting for 12 million bopd being the new "normal" for the US
  • now, there are those who suggest the US is producing at the rate of 13 million bopd

Cushing is growing. Link here. Data points:
  • will add 4.8 million bbls of storage capacity (almost all of it by Keyera, see below)
  • as many as seven new pipelines to move oil to and from the hub
  • Cushing is growing even as Houston is growing in importance for overseas markets
  • six pipeline projects to move about 2 million bopd from Cushing; on line by end of 2021
    • unlikely that all six will get built
    • a more conservative estimate: 750,000 bopd of new outgoing capacity
  • majority of new storage: Keyera Energy Corp's proposed 4.5 million-bbl Wildhorse terminal; to be completed by middle of next year (2020)
  • Magella Midstream Partners LP and Plains All American LP will also add new storage
  • current Cushing storage: estimated to be 77 million bbls
  • some think Cushing's storage could grow to 100 million bbls
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EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

WTI: drops below $53. Down 86 cents; down 1.6%; trading at $52.62.

Huge increase.
  • US crude oil inventories: a huge build -- 6.8 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories: 483.3 million bbls
  • refineries, operating capacity: 91.8% -- same as last week; at low end
  • look at this: imports increased by a whopping 1.065 million bbls; 
  • imports average 7.9 million bopd last week -- I'm sure it's mostly heavy oil -- thank you Mr Obama for killing the Keystone XL
  • gasoline inventories: increased by 3.2 million bbls; at 2% above the 5-year average; gasoline prices would be headed down except for increased costs associated with heavy oil costs -- again, thank you Mr Obama for killing the Keystone XL
  • distillate fuels -- very dependent on heavy oil -- increased by 4.6 million bbls are are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year -- leading indicator? -- recession?
  • unchanged from previous weeks, jet fuel supplied was up 2%
Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8
Week 27
May 30, 2019
-0.3
476.5
Week 28
June 5, 2019
6.8
483.3

2 comments:

  1. HFI is probably right; for four weeks in a row now, over 800 bpd has magically appeared in storage or in refineries over and above what can be accounted for by production + imports - exports...what source of supply is most likely to be undercounted, imports or production? or are the storage and refinery numbers being incorrectly inflated?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it's absolutely fascinating.

      When I look at the wells in the Bakken, I'm absolutely convinced analysts are unaware how incredible these wells are. All that talk early on about Bakken decline rates seems to have been just that -- talk. That was also true of the natural gas wells in the northeast. Incredible wells.

      Delete

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