WTI Slides; Will Test $60; Jobless Claims "Surprise" On The Downside -- America Stays Great -- May 23, 2019

Updates 

Later, 9:52 a.m CT: here we go -- WTI solidly below $60. Now at $58.45, having dropped 5% so far today, losing about $3.00, currently trading at $58.45. 

Later, 7:53 a.m. CT: WTI sinks to $60.06.

Original Post

Weekly jobless claims: link here or here.

• prior: 212,000
• forecast: 217,000
• actual: 211,000 
• 4-week moving average: 220.25K (note the false precision)

CLR: April, 2019, presentation. Interested in the Springer shale.  The latter mentioned in slide 9.

OXY: the only good news -- activist investors seem to be quiet right now, but lots of work to be done to swallow Anadardo.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Oh-oh! the cost keeps going up -- data points:

• Sasol
• Lake Charles Chemical Project (LCCP)
• world-class ethane cracker
• now estimated to cost as much as $13 billion (rounded)
• up from original estimate of $12 billion (rounded) just a couple of months ago
• it may not sound like much, but
• it is an 8% increase in just a few months; and, 
• Sasol didn't give any reassurance:  “This increase in the anticipated LCCP capital costs is extremely disappointing"
• project began in 2014
• project:
• 1.5 million tons of ethylene annually
• six on-site downstream chemical manufacturing plants

Sasol story: the story above has always been of marginal interest to me but with talk of a plastics plant in the Bakken, the story has become much more interesting, much more relevant.

Turkey: stung by Trump's reaction to that country buying Russian anti-defense missiles, Turkey blinked this time: Turkey stopped purchasing Iranian oil as of May (wink, wink); no links; story everywhere;

India: says it ended its oil imports from Iran and Venezuela on May 3 (twitter).


WTI: could continue to fall -- Rigzone; The best model to explain all this at this post. "Everybody" talks about oil going back to $90 but the tea leaves certainly don't suggest that will happen any time soon. When analysts start invoking Venezuela, Libya, and Iran, one knows they are grasping at straws. Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia can meet any shortfall.

Brent: off which Saudi bases its price, has dropped below the all-critical $70 threshold.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Tesla; after a  6% drop yesterday, futures suggest another 3% drop today. Now trading below $190. Rare buying opportunity.

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Back to the Bakken

New wells reporting -- Thursday, May 23, 2019:

• 35319, SI/NC, MRO, Sears USA 21-16TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
• 35300, SI/NC, WPX. Minot Grady 26-35HC, Squaw Creeky, no production data,
• 31563, SI/NC, Slawson, Submariner Federal 5-23-20TFH, Big Bendy, no production data,

Active rigs:

$60.41	5/23/2019	05/23/2018	05/23/2017	05/23/2016	05/23/2015
Active Rigs	64	65	51	25	82

RBN Energy: the international factors influencing US propane exports, part 2.

It’s impossible to know for certain what will happen next in the international markets for propane, butane and ethane — there are too many variables and vagaries. What is very doable, though, is to gain a better understanding of the broader market forces at play.

For example, the U.S. now has a few years under its belt as a major propane exporter, so it’s feasible to assess trends in where that propane is going — or no longer going — and to examine how propane exports to various parts of the world are impacted by everything from a high-stakes trade war to governmental efforts to encourage the use of cleaner cooking fuel. Today, we continue our deep-dive into propane, butane and ethane exports with a look at where propane exports from the U.S. East, West and Gulf coasts are heading, and why.