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Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Saudi Arabia Update; EIA US Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 1, 2019

Saudi crude oil imports, US, link here:


Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves, link here, huge rebound:


EIA US weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil inventory: confirms API data yesterday; a whopping 10 million bbl increase;
  • US crude oil inventory: at 470.6 million bbls, US inventories are at the five-year average; again, the EIA fails to say that the five-year average continues to increase; historically 300 million bbls in storage was more than adequate; 350 million bbls in inventory would suggest "successful" re-balancing; unless I'm missing something -- an increase of 10 million bbls in one week is not trivial; twitter will be going nuts in a few minutes
  • refineries operating capacity at: 89.2% capacity; low end of general range
  • imports: up by 265,000 bopd from previous week; at 7.4 million bopd 
  • gasoline and distillate production: within usual range
Re-balancing:

Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
337.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
343.8
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6

Somehow this week's numbers seem to be slightly off. If last week's inventory was 460.1 million bbls and this increase this week was 9.9 million bbls, then the inventory should be an even 470 million bbls. I must have made a typographical error.

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