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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 22, 2019

Updates

Later, 9:25 p.m. CT: look at the note below -- that is accurate -- total gasoline imports last week rose to 1,350,000 bbls/day -- that's an increase of almost 600,000 bbls/day and an eight-year high. Gasoline demand is down (year-over-year). Last week, for example, gasoline imports were only 752,000 bbls/day-- significantly less than the 1.3 million bbls/day this past week. One has to ask the question: what's driving the increase in gasoline imports? I really don't know. My hunch: is has to do with the West Coast. Let's check. From Reuters, last month, record amounts of gasoline were imported from Europe into the west coast.

Later, 5:56 p.m. CT: regarding today's EIA weekly petroleum report, a reader noted --
Noteworthy: 2nd gasoline storage build in 14 weeks despite a 281,000 bpd increase in product supplied because our imports of gasoline rose by 598,000 barrels per day to an eight-year high of 1,350,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 369,000 barrels per day to 416,000 barrels per day.
Later, 12:50 p.m. CT: WTI off over 3%; down almost $2.00; now trading at $61.16. The best model to explain all this at this post. On top of the huge build that was announced yesterday, we now have forecasts that US shale oil production is set to grow by 16% in this calendar year (2019); and, finally, unless something significant happens, it looks like the Mideast risk premium has been taken out of current pricing.

Original Post
WTI: down 1.5%; down almost a buck; now trading at $62.22/bbl. Gee, I wonder why?
Big_Orrin over at twitter says that based on API "actual inventories" this is his EIA forecast:
  • crude: +8.2 million bbls
  • Cushing: +1.2 million bbls
  • distillate: +1.0 million bbls
  • gasoline: +2.3 million bbls 
The EIA numbers for week ending May 17, 2019:
  • US crude oil inventory: increased by 4.7 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventory: stands at 476.8 million bbls, about 4% above the 5-year average (last week, total inventories were said to be about 2% above the 5-year average)
  • refinery operating capacity: operating at 89.9% -- very low -- and it's down slightly from last week
  • both gasoline and distillate fuel production decreased last week
  • US crude oil imports have dropped considerably, now down close to 10% compared to same four-year period last year
  • gasoline imports average 1.4 million bpd; it would be interesting to see how much of this was "California"
  • gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million bbls (significantly exceeded forecast; see above)
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by about 1 million bbls (in line)
  • but look at this: propane/propylene inventories are about 22% above the 5-year average; increased by 3 million bbls last week
  • jet fuel supplied was up again; up 2.5% compared to same four-week period last year 
Twitter response: pending

From twitter: pay attention to Brazil and Mexico (actually, in the graphic below, note all of South America vs rest of world). Also, note Iraq -- where XOM, others pulled out their personnel due to mideast tensions; from zero back to some imports from Venezuela:


Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8

2 comments:

  1. noteworthy: 2nd gasoline storage build in 14 weeks despite a 281,000 bpd increase in product supplied because our imports of gasoline rose by 598,000 barrels per day to an eight year high of 1350,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 369,000 barrels per day to 416,000 barrels per day...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. I'll come back to this later when I get caught up.

      Delete

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