EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 22, 2019

Updates

Later, 9:25 p.m. CT: look at the note below -- that is accurate -- total gasoline imports last week rose to 1,350,000 bbls/day -- that's an increase of almost 600,000 bbls/day and an eight-year high. Gasoline demand is down (year-over-year). Last week, for example, gasoline imports were only 752,000 bbls/day-- significantly less than the 1.3 million bbls/day this past week. One has to ask the question: what's driving the increase in gasoline imports? I really don't know. My hunch: is has to do with the West Coast. Let's check. From Reuters, last month, record amounts of gasoline were imported from Europe into the west coast.

Later, 5:56 p.m. CT: regarding today's EIA weekly petroleum report, a reader noted --

Noteworthy: 2nd gasoline storage build in 14 weeks despite a 281,000 bpd increase in product supplied because our imports of gasoline rose by 598,000 barrels per day to an eight-year high of 1,350,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 369,000 barrels per day to 416,000 barrels per day.

Later, 12:50 p.m. CT: WTI off over 3%; down almost $2.00; now trading at $61.16. The best model to explain all this at this post. On top of the huge build that was announced yesterday, we now have forecasts that US shale oil production is set to grow by 16% in this calendar year (2019); and, finally, unless something significant happens, it looks like the Mideast risk premium has been taken out of current pricing.

Original Post

WTI: down 1.5%; down almost a buck; now trading at $62.22/bbl. Gee, I wonder why?

• API data posted yesterday: a "surprise build."
• EIA weekly petroleum inventory data: link here.

Big_Orrin over at twitter says that based on API "actual inventories" this is his EIA forecast:

• crude: +8.2 million bbls
• Cushing: +1.2 million bbls
• distillate: +1.0 million bbls
• gasoline: +2.3 million bbls 

The EIA numbers for week ending May 17, 2019:

• US crude oil inventory: increased by 4.7 million bbls
• US crude oil inventory: stands at 476.8 million bbls, about 4% above the 5-year average (last week, total inventories were said to be about 2% above the 5-year average)
• refinery operating capacity: operating at 89.9% -- very low -- and it's down slightly from last week
• both gasoline and distillate fuel production decreased last week
• US crude oil imports have dropped considerably, now down close to 10% compared to same four-year period last year
• gasoline imports average 1.4 million bpd; it would be interesting to see how much of this was "California"
• gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million bbls (significantly exceeded forecast; see above)
• distillate fuel inventories increased by about 1 million bbls (in line)
• but look at this: propane/propylene inventories are about 22% above the 5-year average; increased by 3 million bbls last week
• jet fuel supplied was up again; up 2.5% compared to same four-week period last year 

Twitter response: pending

From twitter: pay attention to Brazil and Mexico (actually, in the graphic below, note all of South America vs rest of world). Also, note Iraq -- where XOM, others pulled out their personnel due to mideast tensions; from zero back to some imports from Venezuela:

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8