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Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Tuesday, April 2, 2019, T+90, Part 1 -- Rambling Thoughts

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Rambling thoughts. Not ready for prime time.

Ninety days into the "new" congress, and notable legislation acted upon or pending:

Okay, moving on.

Unless you've been under the Geico Rock, articles from the last few days suggest just how big the Chinese economy is, how big it's going to get, and how fast it's going to get there. These are stories just from the past three or four days.

I'll supply the links later if the spirit moves me.

First, just how big is it? If one measures an economy by CO2 emissions, China's economy is huge.

How big will it get? Look at how much more energy China will add over the next decade.

Finally, how fast will this happen? Fast, really fast. Headline story over at oilprice: China can't get enough of Brazilian crude oil. Sanctions on Venezuelan oil have shifted a lot of crude buyer's focus to surrounding focus to surrounding Latin nations, but can it keep with demand?

Two weeks ago the US stock market started falling because there were reports and concerns that the Chinese economy was slowing.

Yesterday the market surged, well over 300 points. Why? There were reports that the Chinese economy had bounced back and was going to do just great. By the way, speaking of which, the market is down today (profit-taking) but one large company is notably bucking the trend. Apple. Apple is up an astounding 1.5% on a down day for the market, and after a run-up last week.  Huge presence in China. Just saying.

Now where was I?

There was a recent article out the other day about the number one issue that drove the US equity market during the 30 years that I was actively investing, from 1977 to 2007: OPEC. In a nutshell, during those 30 years OPEC controlled the global economy. That's not me saying that; it was a credible investor. I forget who it was. Doesn't matter. The meme matters.

OPEC now? Important but no longer drives the global economy. Today, what are the two "issues" that drive the US stock market? The Fed (whether it will raise rates or not) and the Chinese economy.

Regarding the Chinese economy, the issue driving the market now is a manufactured "crisis," the Trump trade wars with China.

The Fed? In the big scheme of things, most folks believe that the Fed is independent, not controlled by the president.

China "trade wars"? Controlled 100% by Trump.

On another note, Motley Fool. Pump and dump. Three stocks that could soar. A gazillion publicly trade companies and the very, very, very first company to pump and dump? Xilinx! Awesome. Link here

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Waxahachie, Texas

Posten Gardens.

One million tulips.

If you grow them, they will come.

At night, the tulip elves come out and paint little splashes of color on the tulips.

One in a million, my favorite:

2 comments:

  1. Best comment I read all day!

    "This one time, Biden gave me a "glaring look".. and I felt uncomfortable. Sure, I was in my living room and he was on TV but he should apologize for the way he made me feel that day. I felt cheapened."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even my wife laughed at that one ... and she takes these things very, very seriously.

      Delete

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