Markets caught off guard: oil surges 2.7%; close to a 6-month high. It's a false narrative but it is what it is. 30-second sound bite:Today: IEA is reporting that OPEC's "spare capacity" reaches 3.3 million bopd.
- Iran produces about 4 million bopd
- exports:
- exports when things are going well: 2.4 million bopd
- exports in past couple of years; world has adjusted to Iran exports: 1.2 million bopd
But, of course, we all knew that.
EIA weekly petroleum report, link here. API reported a whopping increase of almost 8 million bbls of crude oil in its report yesterday.
- US crude oil inventories: increased by a whopping 5.5 million bbls
- US crude oil inventories: total inventories now stand at 460.6 million bbls; at the 5-year average, but the average has been increasing ever since the Saudi surge, 2014 - 2016;
- refineries: operating at 90.1% capacity; much better than previous few weeks, but still very, very low;
- but look at this: imports increased by 1,157,000 bopd from the previous week
- imports now average 6.6 million bopd, almost 20% less than the same four-week period last year, so the increase had to occur sooner or later, I suppose
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