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Tuesday, March 12, 2019

It's Always A Surprise -- LOL -- March 12, 2019

Over at oilprice: surprise, yes, another surprise, crude oil draw sends oil prices up.
  • forecast: a build of 2.655 million bbls (again, the precision is incredible - 2,655,000 bbls)
  • actual: a surprise, yes, another surprise, crude oil draw of 2.6 million bbls
But it's the EIA data tomorrow (Wednesday) that really matters.

So, let's see what the price of oil was at the close, after this surprise draw:
  • WTI: up an astonishing 18 cents/bbl (or 0.32%)
  • Brent: up 8 cents/bbl (or 0.12%)
  • OPEC basket: okay, this was a nice price jump but I doubt it had much to do with the API data, up almost 2%; up $1.23 -- this "jump" was due to Saudi Arabia spokesman saying that country would do "anything" to support higher prices
See first comment. False precision.

6 comments:

  1. if my manual count was accurate, 2018 saw 26 withdrawals in 52 weeks..

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    Replies
    1. You know, it's "funny." Every time I post something along this line -- especially when it comes to natural gas -- I'm ways "anxious," concerned, worried what you or someone else is going to educate me on what I missed. LOL. I've learned a lot from readers of the blog. Thank you.

      26 draws in 52 weeks. Hmmm... seems like a coin toss.

      But the biggest thing I've learned: what is a "surprise" to some people is "hype" for others. One has to long horizon to put things into perspective.

      From the Book of Ecclesiastes / Hemingway: "there is nothing new under the sun."

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    2. well, this week's EIA report is surprising, but not for the reason the people at oilprice would think...the EIA data says net oil imports (minus exports) rose by 2,000 bpd, oil production fell by 100,000 bpd, refineries used 30,000 bpd more oil than the previous week, and despite those relatively minor changes we went from an inventory build of 1,010,000 bpd to a storage withdrawal of 550,000 bpd...that means 1,432,000 million barrels of oil per day went missing from last week's EIA data to this week's...pretty sure that's the largest week to week discrepancy that i've seen since i've been looking at the oil balance sheet...

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    3. " ... that means 1,432,000 million barrels of oil per day went missing from last week's EIA data to this week's.... "

      As noted, I think the "false precision: of EIA's data is ludicrous.

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    4. but that EIA data is what the oil traders watch, and hence it drives prices and hence even decisions to drill...

      the EIA should report like the Census, with a 90% confidence range...for instance, today's delayed release on January construction spending reported it was up 1.3 percent (±0.8 percent) from December...and there were also sizable revisions to November and December data with January's report

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    5. Thirty years ago none of us had access to this information so easily --- things have changed immensely. Whether it helps with investing or not,I don't know.

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