Fun With Graphs -- March 4, 2019

The NOAA is tasked with and is predicting a two-degree Celsius rise in temperature one hundred years from now. That two-degree Celsius rise is not trivial. For example: the record wind chill this past week in North Dakota of minus 53 degrees would have been a more tolerable minus 48 degrees with a 5-degree rise in average global temperature.

The NOAA is also tasked with and is predicting the effects of El Nīno six months out. Repeat: six months out. See graphics below.

It should be noted that the y axis does not identify what is being measured, but it ranges from minus three to plus three. The "K" could suggest "degrees Kelvin."  Or maybe it's the number of fake news stories (on average) that will be published between now and then. I don't know.

The "best" case scenario trends to "zero" (no change); the "worst" scenario trends to "three."

I'm glad the NOAA was not responsible for forecasting the odds of successfully landing Apollo 11's lunar module on the moon. 

This is the forecast models:

The screenshot came from this tweet:

It would be interesting to extrapolate the results of those sixteen "models" out to one hundred years.