Fun With Graphs -- March 11, 2019

Something tells me that natural gas will be the energy story of the 21st century.

In the US:

• registered automobiles: 264 million (2015)
• 750,000 registered EVs (in China, 1.2 million)
• percent EVs/registered autos in the US: 0.28%

Now, imagine the graphs below if even 1% of all registered automobiles in the US were fully plug-in EVs:

In this graphic, remember that [nameplate] capacity is being measured, not the actual output. For that, one determines the "capacity factor."

For a further discussion of nameplate capacity, actual output, and the capacity factor:

• EIA white paper
• EIA white paper
• Sunmetrix: the data is a bit suspect at this site, but even so it's quite enlightening

Once one understands the capacity factor and actual output, one understands why it is politically correct to provide graphs of "installed capacity" and not the real data that is useful to the average consumer.

The three industries that will drive US electricity demand in the coming years:

• EVs
• marijuana industry
• data centers

EVs: forecast for 2030.

By the way, on another note, those residential transformers you see in your neighborhood, hanging from utility poles? With the addition of just two or three EVs in your neighborhood, those transformers will have to be upgraded.

Anecdote: in a high-income neighborhood near where we live, with about eight houses total, a transformer blew out late Friday night (March 8, 2019). The granddaughters heard the "explosion" just before the lights went out. EVs in the neighborhood: at most, two. I haven't seen any, but I suppose there are one or two. The transformer / power issue may or may not have had anything to do with electricity demand, but....