Three Wells Come Off Confidential -- February 14, 2019

Jobs:

• unemployment claims --
• forecast: 225,000
• actual: 239,000
• previous: 234,000

Market: down

************************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, February, 14, 2019: 52 wells for the month; 155 wells for the quarter

• 32067, drl, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34F, North Fork, no production data,
• 35174, 377, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 4-6H South, Sergis, a Madison well, t9/18; cum 3K 1/19;
• 34669, drl, Hess, GO-Bergstrom 156-98-2833H-5, Wheelock, no production data,

Active rigs:

$53.47	2/14/2019	02/14/2018	02/14/2017	02/14/2016	02/14/2015
Active Rigs	64	57	36	41	137

RBN Energy: disappearing arbitrage opportunities for Canadian CBR.

Crude-by-rail (CBR) has been a saving grace for many Canadian oil producers. With extremely limited pipeline takeaway capacity, rail options from Western Canada to multiple markets in the U.S. have acted as a relief valve for prices — there for producers when they need it, in the background when they don’t.

In 2018, we saw a major resurgence in CBR activity from our neighbors to the north, with volumes reaching an all-time high of 330 Mb/d just this past November. But just as quickly as CBR seemed ready for takeoff, the rug got pulled out from underneath those midstream rail providers and traders who had lined up deals and railcars to take advantage of wide price spreads. When Alberta’s provincial government announced its 325-Mb/d production curtailment beginning at the start of 2019, many midstream/marketing and integrated oil companies bemoaned what it could potentially do to market opportunities.

And they were spot-on. Wide price differentials for Canadian crudes to WTI disappeared quickly and eliminated most, if not all, of the economic incentive to move crude via rail, and even by pipeline. In today’s blog, we recap the recent move away from crude-by-rail by some of Canada’s largest CBR players, and discuss the risks of long-term CBR commitments in volatile times. Archived.