Norway's Problems -- Won't Amount To A Hill Of Beans -- February 4, 2019

Let's re-write that headline: Norway to see biggest year-on-year increase in production output since the 1980s.

Norway: it's a non-story but Bloomberg is milking it for what it's worth. Link here.

Norway has built a reputation as one of the calmest and most predictable corners of the global oil industry, but lately it’s been full of surprises.

During the worst downturn in a generation, from 2014 to 2016, companies would regularly exceed official forecasts as oil production rose in defiance of falling prices. More recently, with crude surging back to multiyear highs, they’ve run into trouble.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate now expects output to fall to a 31-year low in 2019, with production expected to be almost 60 million barrels short of its previous forecast for this year and in 2018. That’s 80,000 barrels a day less than expected.

Bloomberg then looks at "what happened?"

• maintenance
• glitches, delays
• hubris and tiny fields

And then this, but you have to read to the end of the article:

To be sure, the abrupt slump in Norway’s oil production is temporary. The Nordic country will enjoy a spectacular bump in oil production in 2020 thanks to Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup field, which is scheduled to start production in November this year.

With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.

This is one of those stories where the millennial thought she saw a good story but then had to admit:

With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.

I was mislead also some months ago when I fell for the "31-year" headline.

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The Art Page 

Spuds.

Sophia drew a cartoon a few weeks ago to "record" her two days in ski school and her one day of skiing with her Dad at Angel Fire, east of Taos, New Mexico, this past Christmas.

It should be noted that her legs/skis are straight downhill; parallel; and, proportionate to her body size; compare with her dad.

I found the drawing among some discarded paper when we got home. I do not know who annotated the drawing; it was not me; that's not my handwriting and it's not Grammy's. It looks like it might have been Olivia's printing.