Updates
February 10, 2019: see first comment --
While the EIA reports that "total working gas is within the five-year historical range", that's because the 5-year reference period includes 2014, which saw multiple outbreaks of the polar vortex, with a withdrawal of 990 billion cubic feet over 4 weeks in February that helped drive that year's natural gas supplies to the lowest on record by the end of March...
We certainly don't expect to approach that kind of cold anymore this year, but the temperatures after January of last year were not exceptional, and yet we still approached the current heating season with our natural gas supplies at the lowest level in 15 years...
Since our natural gas supplies are 6.4% below those of a year ago as of this week, it will take smaller withdrawals through the remainder of this winter and/or larger inventory building this spring and fall to avoid entering the winter of 2020 in the same or worse shape than we entered this one...
That fact isn't lost on natural gas traders, who are still pricing natural gas for January 2020 delivery more than 15% higher than the price of the front month contract for natural gas today...Later, 12:44 p.m. CT: this is an epiphany for me. Years ago it was an epiphany for me when I realizd the importance of the difference between light oil and heavy oil (99% of Americans have no clue).
Now, a second epiphany. The EIA graphic on natural gas, to some extent is irrelevant. What is important with regard to natural gas is "regional," not national.
See this post: ConEd may run out of natural gas. Has announced a moratorium on new natural gas hook-ups in Westchester County, NYC.
Original Post
Linked here.
We're through the worse. Everything held. A new five-year graph will evolve, shifted downward. A fascinating year, to say the least.
just one short paragraph of commentary on it for this week...
ReplyDeletewhile the EIA reports that "total working gas is within the five-year historical range", that's because the 5 year reference period includes 2014, which saw multiple outbreaks of the polar vortex, with a withdrawal of 990 billion cubic feet over 4 weeks in February that helped drive that year's natural gas supplies to the lowest on record by the end of March...we certainly don't expect to approach that kind of cold anymore this year, but the temperatures after January of last year were not exceptional, and yet we still approached the current heating season with our natural gas supplies at the lowest level in 15 years...since our natural gas supplies are 6.4% below those of a year ago as of this week, it will take smaller withdrawals through the remainder of this winter and/or larger inventory building this spring and fall to avoid entering the winter of 2020 in the same or worse shape than we entered this one...that fact isn't lost on natural gas traders, who are still pricing natural gas for January 2020 delivery more than 15% higher than the price of the front month contract for natural gas today...
Thank you. Much appreciated.
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