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Friday, January 4, 2019

Re-Balancing? Ain't Gonna Happen At This Rate -- January 4, 2019

Link here. EIA data --
  • US crude oil inventories: unchanged from previous week
  • US crude oil inventories: 441.4 million bbls
  • refinery operating capacity jumped to 97.2%
  • from the report: "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.6% from the same period last year."
  • distillate fuel supplied was up almost 4% compared to last year
  • jet fuel production, interestingly, slumped; down over 12% compared to same four-week period last year
  • gasoline production slightly below the 10-million-barrel threshold 
  • distillate production slightly above the 5-million-barrel threshold
  • all things being equal, WTI should have remained unchanged after the report
  • so let's see what happened: up a dollar and now trading slightly above $48
  • maybe that's why NOG jumped today
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Re-balancing?

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019 12:00 AM
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate

Natural gas fill-rate/withdrawal: link here.



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3 comments:

  1. rjsJanuary 5, 2019 at 12:44 AM

    a few posts ago you said you wanted to be called on arithmetic errors...this might be one:
    "production jumped 1.6% from same period last year"
    i get oil production up 19.6%, or if you meant refinery throughput, that's up 0.9%
    but you might mean something else, so i'll give you the benefit of a doubt...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bruce OksolJanuary 5, 2019 at 7:49 AM

      We were probably looking at different data points. It was my mistake. This was the line from the report:
      Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.6% from the same period last year.

      "Total products supplied" is not the same as "production" I suppose.

      Delete
    2. Bruce OksolJanuary 5, 2019 at 7:49 AM

      I'll change the post to make that clear. Thank you.

      Delete

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