Peak Oil? Peak Demand? Not Anytime Soon -- January 25, 2019

How cold does it get in North Dakota?


Three dog night. Decades ago I was visiting Regina. I mentioned to my hosts how cold it was. They said it was a "three-dog night." That goat in the video above: "one is the loneliest number." And, yes, I think I've watched that video a dozen times.


One Is The Loneliest Number, Three Dog Night
Davis Refinery: air permit upheld by district court. .

US crude oil production to keep setting records until 2027: EIA -- link here. Data points:

• US crude oil production will keep setting annual records until 2027
• US crude oil production will remain higher than 14 million bpd through 2040
• why? continuously growing shale production
• the US has been a net energy importer since 1953, but continued growth in petroleum and natural gas exports results in the US becoming a net energy exporter by 2020 in all scenarios

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: Friday, January 25, 2019

• 35034, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 30052, SI/NC, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HF, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Active rigs:

$53.19	1/25/2019	01/25/2018	01/25/2017	01/25/2016	01/25/2015
Active Rigs	64	56	38	48	157

RBN Energy: part 2, will large-scale pad drilling buoy crude output?  An incredibly good article. I was surprised that the Bakken was not mentioned, unless I missed it.

When crude oil prices crashed in the second half of 2014 and 2015, producers survived by becoming leaner and more efficient. That transition included drastic reductions in the rates paid to services companies while wringing ever more oil and gas out of each well and, in the process, permanently altering the economics of drilling and completion. This year, producers are again facing a lower-price environment; since early October (2018), crude prices have dropped more than 30%. In the current, more conservative investment environment, can producers do it again? Can additional value be squeezed out with bigger well pads and longer laterals? Today, we continue a series exploring the benefits and risks of these highly concentrated and highly complicated operations. 

Earlier we explored the origins of pad drilling and the factors that catalyzed its widespread adoption across the oil patch. By splitting the substantial infrastructure, logistical, and rig-mobilization costs among multiple wells, pad drilling helped improve efficiency the last time crude prices dropped. That blog’s focus was on Northeast gas producers. Now we turn our attention to the crude-focused Permian. We’ll start with a look at a “mega-pad” with more than 60 wells and a couple of somewhat smaller pads, then conclude with a high-level analysis of the pros and cons of “going big.”

Archived.