Monday, January 14, 2019

Director's Cut: should be released tomorrow, Tuesday, January 15, 2019, 3:00 p.m. CT.  

Gasoline: regular unleaded gasoline dropped sharply overnight. At neighborhood station, least expensive unleaded regular dropped form $2.29 late last week to $1.83 this morning.  

ISO New England: spiked to $110/MW this morning. Although minimal, both less than 1%, ISO New England was still burning oil and coal.

China's annual trade surplus with US hits record. Until Trump came along, no one was talking about this, nor was the Deep State / MSM talking about a lot of other things that Trump has pointed out. By the way, whatever happened to the North Korean nuclear threat? That's rhetorical; please don't answer/respond. [Shortly after posting that, it was announced that a new "summit" between US and North Korea was in the offing.]

Mexico fuel shortage: update, at Bloomberg via Rigzone. Bottom line: Pemex gas stations are getting priority. If you pull into another service station, there may be a fuel shortage.

Private gasoline retailers including BP Plc and Repsol SA are scrambling for alternatives to state-owned Pemex to supply their service stations in Mexico that are running out of fuel. That could be easier said than done, however.

Companies that have relied on Petroleos Mexicanos for supply could turn to private truckers to carry gasoline and diesel from ports to their stations. The firms are also evaluating importing fuel by rail and ship. Pemex’s fuel pipelines, shut as part of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s efforts to rein in fuel theft, are not expected to fully reopen for several months.

Given that tankers holding the equivalent of about 16 percent of Pemex’s daily fuels sales are waiting at Mexico’s ports, importing more gasoline and diesel may be a challenge.

The government’s actions, including shutting Pemex pipelines and increasing surveillance of refineries and terminals since the weekend, have led to major distribution delays and sparked nationwide shortages at gas stations.

Some of the world’s biggest oil companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp., Koch Industries Inc. and Glencore Plc, have piled into the Mexican fuel market over the past several years following landmark legislation in 2014 that ended Pemex’s monopoly in the sector. Pemex still owns a majority of Mexico’s distribution networks and infrastructure, however, with only a handful of private importers such as Koch and Glencore moving their own product into the country.

Pemex is prioritizing its own service stations before supplying private clients such as BP, according to one of the people. For example, only about 20 fuel trucks a day are arriving to supply all of the service stations in Toluca in the state of Mexico whereas BP alone relies on 26 fuel trucks a day to supply its fuel stations there.

Equinor (Statoil) acquires 40% operated interest in Chevron's Rosebank, in the west of Shetland, US UK continental shelf. Link here.

M&A mergers in oil and gas industry. GlobalData posted short list of potential M&A targets/acquirers. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

James Powell owns the economy. US consumer prices drop for the first time in nine months. Came on the slump of price of gasoline. I've never really understood why gasoline was part of the CPI but that's a discussion for another place and time. Not at this place and not at this time. The Fed, CNBC, and most others agree that underlying inflation pressures remained firm, as rental housing and health care rose steadily.

Saudi Arabia: from John Kemp this morning --

Something puzzles me reading the news (as a bear of very little brain) Saudi Arabia short of cash and borrowing on international capital markets Revenues insufficient to meet budget commitments At the same time, multiple stories about the country investing overseas I'm confused

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today, over the weekend --
Monday, January 14,2018:

• 34650, SI/NC, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HC, South Fork, no production data,
• 34649, SI/NC, WPX, Lawrence Bull 1-12HY, South Fork, no production data,

Sunday, January 13, 2018:

• 31775, 3,193, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, Three Forks, API: 33-053-07184, 12 million gallons of water; 87% water by mass, 55 stages; 14.6 million lbs, t8/18; cum 156K 11/18; Antelope-Sanish. For background, see this post.

Saturday, January 12, 2018:

• 34195, 2,249, CLR, Radermecher 13-22H, Camel Butte, a huge well; see the Radermecher wells here; t9/18; cum 96K 11/18;
• 33725, 2,621, CLR, Norway 5-5H, Fancy Buttes, t10/18; cum 3K 11/18;
• 33646, IA/357,  CLR, Comlid 8-19H, Elidah, 4 sections, t --; cum --
• 31778, 1,549, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-10H, Antelope-Sanish, 48 stages; 12.6 million lbs, a nice well; but not as nice as #31775 above; t8/18; cum 60K 11/18;

Active rigs:

$51.08	1/14/2019	01/14/2018	01/14/2017	01/14/2016	01/14/2015
Active Rigs	67	55	36	51	158

RBN Energy: part 4, how LNG exports will change gulf coast natural gas markets in 2019.

Liquefaction capacity additions will add about 5 Bcf/d of natural gas demand in 2019, with almost all of that happening along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The planned start-up of new liquefaction trains at the Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Freeport and Elba Island projects means we can expect U.S. LNG export demand to double to nearly 9 Bcf/d by the end of the year. How fast will that new capacity and gas demand come on and how will the gas get to where it needs to be? Today, we take a closer look at the timing of the liquefaction capacity build-out and the related feedgas routes.