January 23, 2019

Tbe new normal, at least for now: New Englanders paying $125/MWh; anything above $35 is immoral but that's what you get with non-dispatchable renewable energy. Link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday and yet to be reported, the "Tuesday wells":

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

• 34197, 2,086, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 10K 11/18; 
• 33643, IA/n/d, CLR, Ransom 5-20H2, 33-053-08052, 8.7 million gallons water, 90.1% water by mass; Elidah, t--; cum --;  

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

• 34879, 1,066, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, 33-053-08527, 9.8 million gallons water; 92% water by mass;Haystack Butte, t11/18; cum 13K after 17 days;
• 34878, 734, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, t11/18; cum 9K after 16 days; 
• 34613, SI/NC, WPX, Benson 3HC, 33-053-08425, no frack data at FracFocus as of 11/18; Squaw Creek, no production data, 
• 34476, 386, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, 33-025-03437, 9.1 million gallons, 92.9% water by mass; Manning, t7/18; cum 42K 11/18;
• 34475, 389, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, t7/18; cum 47K 11/18;
• 23939, drl, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte,

Active rigs:

$53.44	1/23/2019	01/23/2018	01/23/2017	01/23/2016	01/23/2015
Active Rigs	63	57	38	47	157

RBN Energy: part 5, how LNG exports will change gulf coast natural gas markets in 2019

One of the biggest factors affecting the U.S. natural gas market in 2019 will undoubtedly be the dramatic rise in LNG export demand. The slate of liquefaction and LNG export capacity additions this year will boost U.S. demand for feedgas supply to nearly 9 Bcf/d by the end of the year, almost tripling the 2018 full-year average of 3.1 Bcf/d and close to doubling the December 2018 average of 4.6 Bcf/d, with the lion’s share of that growth happening along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. Three liquefaction trains — one each at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals, as well as one at Cameron LNG — are likely to be fully operational in the first quarter, with five additional trains due in rapid progression later in 2019. That much new gas demand concentrated in one region is bound to disrupt physical flows and pricing dynamics. Today, we wrap up the series with a look at the timing and feedgas routes for the final two facilities: Freeport LNG in Texas and Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island project in Georgia.

This is Part 5 of our series detailing the LNG export capacity additions due online in 2019 and the feedgas pipeline capacity that’s lined up to serve them. Earlier, we looked at recent changes at the two operational terminals — Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefaction (SPL) and Dominion Energy’s Cove Point LNG facility in Maryland. SPL kicked off the 2019 LNG exports boom last fall when it began ramping up its fifth 4.5-MMtpa train, ahead of schedule. By December, SPL as a whole was taking more than 3.5 Bcf/d, with the help of a new feedgas delivery point via Kinder Morgan Louisiana Pipeline’s (KMLP) 600-MMcf/d Sabine Pass Expansion, which is fully contracted by Cheniere. Around that time, in mid-October, Cove Point LNG returned from a multi-week maintenance event and, with the in-service of upstream pipeline expansions — Williams/Transco’s Atlantic Sunrise and TransCanada/Columbia Gas Group’s WB Xpress — the 770 MMcf/d East Coast export facility began firing on all cylinders for the first time since it came online in early 2018. By late November, Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) also began commissioning its first liquefaction train on the Texas Gulf Coast, also ahead of schedule, with Train 2 close on its heels.

Among these three facilities, feedgas flows ended 2018 above 5 Bcf/d, double where they started the year, near 2.5 Bcf/d. And SPL’s Train 5 and CCL’s Train 1 are just two out of a full eight new liquefaction trains due to be commercialized this year that will catapult U.S. feedgas demand for LNG exports to almost 9 Bcf/d by the end of 2019. That includes three new trains at Cameron LNG in Louisiana, the first of three trains at Freeport LNG near Freeport, TX, as well as the 10 mini-trains being developed at Elba Liquefaction in Georgia.

That much incremental demand growth in a relatively short span of time –– and mostly concentrated along the Gulf Coast –– is all but guaranteed to disrupt and reconfigure old gas flow patterns in the region. Recall that these LNG export projects need to line up three key commitments: 1) customer commitments for the train capacity (i.e. demand for LNG off-take); 2) supply contracts with gas producers to feed the trains, and 3) transportation capacity to get the gas there, including the capacity to move the gas those last few miles from the mainline delivery point to the terminal itself.

Most recently we examined the feedgas routes and pipeline projects lined up to deliver gas to Cameron LNG in Louisiana, where Train 1 is also gearing up to take feedgas this quarter.

Today, we conclude the series with a look at the timing and pipeline routes that will serve LNG production at the two other terminals that have plans to begin exporting this year: Freeport LNG and Elba Island LNG.

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