Idle Chatter -- This Is Not An Investment Site -- January 16, 2019

Updates

Later, 7:01 p.m. CT: earnings -- from today --


From Chesto over at The Boston Globe, January 16, 2019:

Bank of America's fourth-quarter profit topped analysts' estimates, and its profit for the year was a record $28.15 billion.

Goldman Sachs beat estimates as a spike in revenue from investment banking offset declines in revenue from underwriting and trading.

Ford Motor warned that its fourth-quarter profit would fall short of estimates, and didn't provide a forecast for 2019.

Original Post

Before I get started, a huge shout-out to be the readers who really send me "good stuff" and seem to be able to ignore my political rants and stick to energy. This is one of those rambling posts I would hope no one reads. It has nothing to do with the Bakken.

As an investor I could not possibly be in a better mood. We're not out of the woods yet, but if that's the worst the bears could throw at us, we're in pretty good shape. I haven't followed the market in the last six weeks or so, but today I did take a look. Mostly because earnings season is upon us and I have one pesky reader who won't let me forget that. Like clockwork, he/she/it reminds me that Alcoa is always the first to lead off earnings.

I say "it" because there's a very strong possibility that the reader is a big, old, fluffy white cat who seems to provide better insights than Goldman Sachs. After being in the "market" since 1984, I can honestly say the "Kat" seems to have as much as "street cred" as any analyst that comes on the Jim Cramer show (I have not watched Cramer in two months or so, and have no plans to ever watch him again).

By the way, before I forget, Rush Limbaugh provided as good a summary today of Apple's "problems" as I've heard from any analyst. [I see that Rush "stole" that from The Telegraph.]

But I digress. Where was I? Oh, yeah, as an investor I could not possibly be in a better mood. We're not out of the woods yet, but if that's the worst the bears could throw at us, we're in pretty good shape.

Look at this: Alcoa swings to GAAp profit, sees an aluminum deficit, and an alumina surplus for 2019.

Shares of Alcoa Inc. rose in the extended session Wednesday after the company swung to a GAAP profit in the fourth quarter. Alcoa said it earned $43 million, or 23 cents a share, in the quarter, versus a loss of $196 million, or $1.06 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted for one-time items, the company earned $125 million, or 66 cents a share, compared with $195 million, or $1.04 a share, a year ago. Revenue hit $3.3 billion, from $3.2 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected adjusted earnings of 50 cents a share on sales of $3.3 billion. 

Tea leaves: we're going to see a lot of stock buybacks this earnings season. In addition, there will be no dividend surprises.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on what you see here or what you may think you may have seen here.

With regard to the Bakken, the "state of the Bakken (SOTB)," the only stock I'm following is NOG. I hold shares in other Bakken companies but the only company I look at periodically is NOG. I see NOG was up 4.4% today.

Also, I'm happy, politically: Nancy Pelosi's disinvite is quite extraordinary. "Disinviting" a sitting president.

Partly because she can't guarantee safety/security. Wow, to the best of my knowledge, the US Marines are still part of the US government.

But I digress.

Another reason I'm in a great mood: Alexa. Unlimited music for free. And unlimited premium music for $8/month. What's not to like.

I also have my 2018 taxes under control.

And, on top of all that, I learned today that our little town, Grapevine, TX, is breaking ground for a one of those rare 5-level stacked interchanges. If I didn't have driving responsibilities fothe granddaughters, I would see a job with this 2.5-year project which I think will stretch to five years. This is a a huge, huge project. It will transform Grapevine. At this wiki site, scroll down to the "Texas-style stack" or the "five-level stack." I assume iHop will soon have a "Texas-style stack." If not, McDonald's needs to grab that pancake moniker and trademark, especially after losing a trademark battle to "Supermac's."

I'm also happy because another book came in the mail today: The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean: The Ancient World Economy & The Kingdoms of Africa, Arabia & India, Raoul McLaughlin, c. 2014, 2018. I'm particularly interested in the third chapter: "Incense: A Unique Product."

2.5 years from now our driving responsibilities should be coming to an end.

As soon as my driving responsibilities come to an end, I will spend some time in Williston, ND (the Bakken); Provincetown, Cape Cod, MA (best martinis in the US served by the best waiters in the world); and, then Lake Flathead, MT, until Laura moves me into a nursing home. By then, maybe I will have learned how to make my own Provinctown-martini.