Idle Chatter -- January 5, 2018

I've been updating production data for wells back from 2015. That dreaded Bakken decline rate? Machts nicht. I think folks are going to be surprised by how well Bakken wells do in general over time.

Out of curiosity, I decided to go back to 2006 when the Bakken was still not "a thing" in North Dakota. The Bakken "began" in eastern Montana along the North Dakota border in 2000 but it was not until mid-2007 when the EOG Parshall well set off the Bakken boom in North Dakota.

So, I was curious what calendar year 2006 looked like in North Dakota. See this post. I have only updated the first thirty of forty wells.

Early in the 16XXX series, or early in 2006, operators were drilling wells in the Madison and the Birdbear. Most of the Birdbear wells turned out to be dry holes or such poor wells they were abandoned within a month or so of drilling. There were very few Madison wells drilled.

Then, starting in mid-2006, operators started drilling Bakken wells. By today's standards they were poor wells but they have served their purpose (which I have talked about at length in the past; I won't go over that now; maybe later).

But this is what is striking. Generally speaking, operators do not abandon Bakken wells. Even really lousy Bakken wells are left alone to continue producing, albeit small amounts. If nothing else, these early Bakken wells are holding leases by production.

But many, many early Bakken wells that were very, very poor wells are now showing some life, showing some interesting production.

For example, let's look at #16068, completed in May, 2006. We didn't really start seeing Bakken wells until about #16030, so #16068 is a very, very early Bakken well. The Bakken boom in North Dakota had not yet begun.

16068, 104, Whiting, Bartleson 44-1H, Sanish, t5/06; cum 302K 11/18, full production profile is at this post.

But look at these changes in production:

First year. By today's standards, an incredibly lousy well in an incredibly good field:

BAKKEN	3-2007	11	795	1106	125	392	0	392
BAKKEN	2-2007	28	2210	2042	345	1127	0	1127
BAKKEN	1-2007	31	2924	3023	466	1421	0	1421
BAKKEN	12-2006	31	3746	4006	667	1825	0	1825
BAKKEN	11-2006	30	5309	5030	1247	3407	0	3407
BAKKEN	10-2006	25	5516	5225	4751	4194	0	4194
BAKKEN	9-2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2006	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2006	8	2	125	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2006	27	1975	2290	535	1640	0	1640
BAKKEN	5-2006	31	3101	3028	1027	1800	0	1800
BAKKEN	4-2006	18	2524	2153	1502	0	0	0

It plateaued out at around 1,500 bbls/month, which in the big scheme of things, is pretty respectable, but then look what happened in mid-2014, after the well was eight years old. Pretty incredible, huh -- what was that about Hubbert's theory?

BAKKEN	7-2015	31	3724	3709	2234	5985	5898	87
BAKKEN	6-2015	28	4016	3992	2235	3133	2631	502
BAKKEN	5-2015	18	1940	2003	1372	3518	3510	8
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	4058	4021	3208	6874	6798	76
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	4216	4217	3244	6629	6534	95
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	4079	4168	3157	6006	5827	179
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	4896	4821	3165	5254	3615	1639
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	5405	5478	3328	6124	6079	45
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	7246	7192	3645	6279	6003	276
BAKKEN	10-2014	22	4483	4550	1413	4157	3208	949
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	4421	4379	1484	3590	2667	923
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	4360	4473	1633	3892	2398	1494
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	6052	6063	3289	5046	887	4159
BAKKEN	6-2014	26	8204	7974	7541	6664	1633	5031
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	95	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	781	855	237	710	710	0

And it was not re-fracked.

Again, the production declined, and plateaued out at around 1,000 bbls/month, but then look what happened early last year. Not particularly remarkable in the big scheme of things, except whatever happened, it extended the life of the well and we will see this over and over and over for the next 30+ years. This well will eventually be re-fracked (probably more than once).

BAKKEN	11-2018	30	1645	1944	523	2250	821	1429
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	1930	1655	1112	2336	518	1818
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	1849	1897	1061	2279	612	1667
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1874	1883	946	3006	534	2472
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	2114	2290	1599	3257	2762	495
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	2074	1903	1402	2461	894	1567
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	2150	2195	1672	2430	119	2311
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2018	1975	2162	2308	1484	824
BAKKEN	3-2018	16	590	528	652	514	32	482
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	19	575	566	148	789	773	16
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1075	1051	364	1679	1551	128
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	963	949	539	1558	1558	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	1014	1006	454	1430	1377	53

An incredibly mediocre well by today's standards, that was fracked well before modern completion strategies were implemented, and yet in less than twelve years has produced as much oil as the average Madison well produced over a 30-year lifetime.