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Saturday, January 5, 2019

Idle Chatter -- January 5, 2018

I've been updating production data for wells back from 2015. That dreaded Bakken decline rate? Machts nicht. I think folks are going to be surprised by how well Bakken wells do in general over time.

Out of curiosity, I decided to go back to 2006 when the Bakken was still not "a thing" in North Dakota. The Bakken "began" in eastern Montana along the North Dakota border in 2000 but it was not until mid-2007 when the EOG Parshall well set off the Bakken boom in North Dakota.

So, I was curious what calendar year 2006 looked like in North Dakota. See this post. I have only updated the first thirty of forty wells.

Early in the 16XXX series, or early in 2006, operators were drilling wells in the Madison and the Birdbear. Most of the Birdbear wells turned out to be dry holes or such poor wells they were abandoned within a month or so of drilling. There were very few Madison wells drilled.

Then, starting in mid-2006, operators started drilling Bakken wells. By today's standards they were poor wells but they have served their purpose (which I have talked about at length in the past; I won't go over that now; maybe later).

But this is what is striking. Generally speaking, operators do not abandon Bakken wells. Even really lousy Bakken wells are left alone to continue producing, albeit small amounts. If nothing else, these early Bakken wells are holding leases by production.

But many, many early Bakken wells that were very, very poor wells are now showing some life, showing some interesting production.

For example, let's look at #16068, completed in May, 2006. We didn't really start seeing Bakken wells until about #16030, so #16068 is a very, very early Bakken well. The Bakken boom in North Dakota had not yet begun.

16068, 104, Whiting, Bartleson 44-1H, Sanish, t5/06; cum 302K 11/18, full production profile is at this post.

But look at these changes in production:

First year. By today's standards, an incredibly lousy well in an incredibly good field:
BAKKEN3-20071179511061253920392
BAKKEN2-20072822102042345112701127
BAKKEN1-20073129243023466142101421
BAKKEN12-20063137464006667182501825
BAKKEN11-200630530950301247340703407
BAKKEN10-200625551652254751419404194
BAKKEN9-20060000000
BAKKEN8-20060000000
BAKKEN7-2006821250000
BAKKEN6-20062719752290535164001640
BAKKEN5-200631310130281027180001800
BAKKEN4-200618252421531502000

It plateaued out at around 1,500 bbls/month, which in the big scheme of things, is pretty respectable, but then look what happened in mid-2014, after the well was eight years old. Pretty incredible, huh -- what was that about Hubbert's theory?
BAKKEN7-2015313724370922345985589887
BAKKEN6-20152840163992223531332631502
BAKKEN5-201518194020031372351835108
BAKKEN4-2015304058402132086874679876
BAKKEN3-2015314216421732446629653495
BAKKEN2-20152840794168315760065827179
BAKKEN1-201531489648213165525436151639
BAKKEN12-2014315405547833286124607945
BAKKEN11-20143072467192364562796003276
BAKKEN10-20142244834550141341573208949
BAKKEN9-20143044214379148435902667923
BAKKEN8-201431436044731633389223981494
BAKKEN7-20143160526063328950468874159
BAKKEN6-201426820479747541666416335031
BAKKEN5-201400950000
BAKKEN4-20140000000
BAKKEN3-2014267818552377107100

And it was not re-fracked.

Again, the production declined, and plateaued out at around 1,000 bbls/month, but then look what happened early last year. Not particularly remarkable in the big scheme of things, except whatever happened, it extended the life of the well and we will see this over and over and over for the next 30+ years. This well will eventually be re-fracked (probably more than once).
BAKKEN11-2018301645194452322508211429
BAKKEN10-20183119301655111223365181818
BAKKEN9-20183018491897106122796121667
BAKKEN8-2018311874188394630065342472
BAKKEN7-20183121142290159932572762495
BAKKEN6-20183020741903140224618941567
BAKKEN5-20183121502195167224301192311
BAKKEN4-20183020181975216223081484824
BAKKEN3-20181659052865251432482
BAKKEN2-20180090000
BAKKEN1-20181957556614878977316
BAKKEN12-2017311075105136416791551128
BAKKEN11-201730963949539155815580
BAKKEN10-201731101410064541430137753

An incredibly mediocre well by today's standards, that was fracked well before modern completion strategies were implemented, and yet in less than twelve years has produced as much oil as the average Madison well produced over a 30-year lifetime.

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