EIA's Most Recent Energy Report Is Staggering -- January 17, 2019

Re-posting:

12: US oil output to average 12 million bopd in 2019.

U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.

The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.

U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.

Note:

• crude oil
• this past year, 2018: US crude oil production averaged 10.9 million bopd
• next year, 2019, the estimate: US crude oil production will average 12.1 million bopd
• delta: 1.2 million bopd or an increase of 11% year-over-year
• natural gas
• this past year, 2018: US natural gas production averaged 83.3 bcfpd
• next year, 2019, the estimate: US natural gas production will average 90.2 bcfpd 
• delta: 6.9 bcfpd or an increase of more than 8% year-over-year
• but look at this, US crude oil imports:
• current US crude oil imports are averaging about 2.4 million bopd
• next year, 2019, the estimate for US crude oil imports drops to an average of just over 1 million bopd, and,
• then in 2020, the estimate for uS crude oil imports drops to less than 0.1 million bopd -- 0.1 million = 100,000 bopd -- a rounding error in global production of 100 million bopd
• first thoughts
• one almost wonders if that is a typo: less than 100,000 bopd in 2019
• US crude oil imports include oil from Canada
• what does this estimate say about imports from Canada
• where is heavy oil for US refineries coming from, or will US refineries have switched over to all light, sweet oil with "no one" noticing
• at 100,000 bopd, one can clearly say the US is 100% energy independent
• my only conclusion: I must be misreading something

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