Oasis 3Q18 Earnings Are Out -- November 5, 2018

Oasis earnings. Link over at SeekingAlpha: press release here;

• non-GAAP EPS, 8 cents, misses by 4 cents
• GAAP EPS, 20 cents, beats by 8 cents
• revenue of $546.5 million, beats by $92.98 million -- that's a fairly hefty beat
• production: 65,900 bopd; 27% increase yoy
• oil cut of 77%
• lowered loe/bbl by over 17% yoy to $6.18/boe
• 24.4 net operated wells in the Williston Basin
• 2.0 net operated wells in the Delaware Basin
• for 2018, expectation:
• Williston Basin: 110 gross operated wells
• Permian: 6 - 8 gross operated wells
• confirms acquisition of 1,600 net acres in the Permian for $20,000 / net acre
• CEO says he was happy.

**************************************

Will Wonders Never Cease?

My wife is visiting our younger daughter in Portland, OR, this week which means I have increased driving responsibility picking up, taking multiple folks to and from school this week. I enjoy it. I get to see the granddaughters.

So, here I am -- parked in a bus loading and unloading zone out in the middle of nowhere -- sort of in an industrial part of town, mixed with some residential apartment complexes, and a water tower. There is nothing to suggest there is any wi-fi here so I brought plenty of reading material.

Lo and behold, "CableWiFi" of unknown origin, but it's fast and no password. Maybe someone is using it to hack into computers. Whatever.

******************************

Trump Wins Again?

Am I reading this correctly? Succinctly:

• Obama established net neutrality rules
• Trump overturned those rules a year ago
• we've had the Trump "net" rules for the past year (the US is still thriving)
• the Supreme Court won't get involved

Link here.

I'm a "big" investor in telecom. I have a dog in this fight. But I don't know which dog is mine. So: no comment.

Okay, so these comments:

• Obama-era "net neutrality" regulations that barred internet service providers from giving certain customers preferential treatment: socialism
• Trump-era regulations: free-market capitalism

Why would major telecom corporations want net neutrality? Too confusing for me.

Regardless: the US Supreme Court is charting the right course on this one. If it's that big a deal, Congress needs to enact veto-proof laws.

************************************

The Literature Page

The other day a reader recommended an anthology edited by Tom Wolfe, The New Journalism, c. 1973. I ordered it sight unseen and received it today. I love it. At least at first glance it looks wonderful.

Soft cover; well used but no markings in it. Looks like it might have been one of 45 copies in some college journalism course room and this copy was seldom, if ever, really used. It's soft and has the feel of having been opened many times but no markings.

There are four opening introductory chapters -- the kind I always like in these anthologies.

And then twenty-three (23) selections, from about 20 different journalists, including Tom Wolfe, of course; Hunter S Thompson (two selections); Norman Mailer; Joan Didion; George Plimpton; Gay Talese, Rex Reed; and, Truman Capote.

It would be great for a trans-Atlantic flight. It's too short for a trans-Pacific flight; for the latter one needs to read the bible. Or is the Bible?

Nine New Permits -- November 5, 2018

Natural gas: up 8.31% today; trading at $3.557.

Active rigs:

$62.69↓↓↓	11/5/2018	11/05/2017	11/05/2016	11/05/2015	11/05/2014
Active Rigs	65	55	37	67	190

Nine new permits:

• Operators: Hess (5); Petroshale (4)
• Fields: Truax (Williams), McGregory Buttes (Dunn)
• Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well SC-Hoving pad in 15-154-98; Petroshale has permits for a 4-well Thunder Cloud middle Bakken/Three Forks pad in 18-148-93;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 34277, 1,562, Whiting, Thomas 13-3-2H, Truax, t10/18; cum -- 

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend and today not reported for some reason.

This Tells Me Amazon Is Coming To Texas! -- November 5, 2018

Amazon, on an "emotional" level absolutely, positively, did not want to come to Texas.

But, looking at the demographics, location, future, yada, yada, yada, Texas was a no-brainer.

What to do?

Two sites for Amazon's HQ2.

Link here at The WSJ.

Amazon plans to split its second headquarters evenly between two locations rather than picking one city for HQ2, according to a person familiar with the matter, a surprise decision that will spread the impact of a massive new office across two communities.

The driving force behind the decision to build two equal offices in addition to the company’s headquarters in Seattle is recruiting enough tech talent, according to the person familiar with the company’s plans. The move will also ease potential issues with housing, transit and other areas where adding tens of thousands of workers could cause problems.

Under the new plan, Amazon would split the workforce with 25,000 employees in each city, the person said. 

Seriously, no hints on what the two cities might be.

In my July 29, 2018, note below, Austin, like Boston, made the short list at three legalized betting sites. At the time, I felt strongly, with just one site, it could not be Austin. My thoughts now, with two sites:

• Boston: money
• Austin: "Silicon Valley"

From July 29, 2018:

This is from USA Today, April 30, 2018:

Three betting sites.

British online betting site Oddsmakers:

• Virginia
• Austin
• Boston
• DC
• Atlanta

Irish bookie site PaddyPower:

• Boston
• Austin
• Atlanta
• Montgomery Co., Maryland
• Pittsburgh

Canada's Bovada betting site:

• Virginia
• Austin
• Boston
• DC
• Atlanta

Toronto gaining popularity at the Canadian betting site.

My two cents worth: it will be in northeast US, not Texas. Texas is a great site for fulfillment centers and tech support, but Austin is not a financial or political center.

Austin makes all three lists, but DC makes only two lists. Boston makes all three lists, and is a financial center. With 25 universities and colleges in the Boston area, I think Boston is a no-brainer for a corporate headquarters. Atlanta, also, makes all three lists, but I just don't see it.

Minor Update On CLR's Kennedy-Miles Wells In Dimmick Lake -- November 5, 2018

I track the Kennedy-Miles wells here.

At that link, scrolling up from the bottom, you will note that a lot of wells went back on the conf list. They are all producing very nicely now, for the last four months or so.

Many of the other producing wells that had come off the confidential list were also off line for the past few months suggesting neighboring fracking was going on. Many of those wells remain off line.

However, are we seeing some good news here?

18543, 378, CLR, Kennedy 1-31H, was back on line for four days in 9/17 after being off line since 1/18 for all practical purposes. This may mean something; it may not. But over 4 days in 9/18 this well produced 787 bbls.

Random Update Of An Oasis Spratley Well -- November 5, 2018

This page won't be updated.

There is no evidence that this well has been re-fracked. The Spratley wells are tracked here.

At risk of beating a dead horse:

But not only that, this well did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production all of a sudden this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. 

Whatever. 

The well:

• 19946, 1,474, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13H, Alkali Creek, Bakken, t11/11; cum 604K 9/18;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	16	3820	4681	5692	3522	875	2487
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	9911	9369	12207	13483	12647	526
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	12533	12642	15683	16987	16467	210
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	11641	11778	15963	14457	14125	32
BAKKEN	5-2018	30	12544	12476	19710	3105	2154	651
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	13630	13792	24382	3285	1947	1038
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	16274	16160	32399	4253	2757	1186
BAKKEN	2-2018	20	10253	9777	26971	4031	2675	1156
BAKKEN	1-2018	27	7496	8329	27256	13237	0	12967
BAKKEN	12-2017	29	8724	7842	38686	13508	0	13218
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	12	882	1443	465	1806	0	1676
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	2793	2436	790	5055	0	4755
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	2796	3118	830	5053	0	4753
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	2693	2403	688	4878	0	4578
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	3344	3560	1240	6941	0	6631
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	3232	3488	1135	5795	0	5495
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	3405	3544	923	5235	4925	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	3018	2430	946	5411	4003	1128

Random Update Of A Million-Bbl CLR Whitman Well In Oakdale -- November 5, 2018

This page won't be updated.

This well has not been re-fracked.

The well:

• 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1611 million bbls 9/18; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line; sundry form says valve on LACT line was cracked open; small oil spill; resolved; off-line as of 9/17; neighboring well in section was re-refracked; note production jump in 9/18;

Look at recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	13999	14197	6835	15432	14036	1011
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	2075	1375	1231	2073	1580	443
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	221	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	2	0	0	19	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	22	0	21	1	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	3	2	38	0	1	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	16	3829	3858	232	4800	4703	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	9112	9143	428	10829	10590	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	26	6257	6352	117	6851	5326	1380
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	9377	9406	333	11517	11284	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	10218	10106	357	12107	11861	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	28	8004	8101	327	9332	8923	220
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	10149	10137	318	11626	11381	0

Listening to peak oil folks / conventional oil folks it was my understanding that once oil wells start declining they never show increased output during primary production.

Random Update Of A Petro-Hut USA Well In The Charlson

This page won't be updated.

I track this well at this post.

There is no data to suggest this well has been re-fracked.

Re-posting from an earlier post regarding a Bakken well:

But not only that, this well did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production all of a sudden this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. 

Whatever. 

The well:

• 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, t11/11; Charlson; cum 897K 9/18; 25 stages; 3.1 million lbs proppant; went IA 1/14; still inactive as of 6/14; back on line September, 2014; a Three Forks well;

Recent production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	9277	9448	1985	16768	14265	2503
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	9216	9040	2116	17960	17618	126
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	9724	9873	2209	17890	17595	79
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	10650	11102	2855	16461	16076	176
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	11129	10573	2472	17002	16704	82
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	11191	11390	2549	16514	15353	952
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	11710	11530	2433	16543	16327	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	11134	11230	2470	16231	15528	508
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	12724	12821	2902	18163	17947	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	13263	12940	2992	17633	17343	74
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	13117	13454	3108	16769	8209	8351
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	14439	14496	3282	19217	0	19001
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	12674	12004	3682	16658	0	16477
BAKKEN	8-2017	4	501	690	85	861	839	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	5175	5311	460	8108	7892	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	5032	5032	405	7302	6873	220
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	5054	4857	418	8962	2717	6029

When I see results like this these are some of thoughts:

• the Bakken / Three Forks is really, really well understood -- as far as mapping goes
• some areas have much better natural fracking than other areas
• North Dakota has the world's largest micro-seismic array -- unless something has changed recently
• operators really, really know what they are doing 
• there is/are never enough resources -- human or money -- in any human endeavor; operators need to prioritize their activities worldwide, nationwide, and in the Bakken

Random Update Of A CLR Holstein Federal Well In Elm Tree -- November 5, 2018

I don't add many wells to my "monster well" page; there are just too many. To get added as a "monster well" these days something remarkable must be noted.

On the other hand, some wells were noted to be "monster wells" from the beginning.

Example. Completed/fracked in February, 2015, and by the end of 2016, had accumulated close to
500,000 bbls of oil:

• 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 453K 11/16; 

So, now what? Today:

• 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 708K 9/18.

Certainly, this should be a million-bbl well; Bakken wells will produce for 35 years.

By the way, look at the full production profile for this well at this post.

According to data (or lack of data) at FracFocus and NDIC, this well has not been re-fracked.

This is from an earlier note regarding another Bakken well:

But not only that, it did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production, all of a sudden this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. Whatever. 

This well has been such a great producer, I'm not sure one can say there has been definite jumps in production or whether the operator is simply "managing" the well. 

Random Update Of A WPX Victor Elk Well In Reunion Bay -- November 5, 2018

I don't add many wells to my "monster well" page; there are just too many. To get added as a "monster well" these days something remarkable must be noted.

Example. This well certainly would not be considered a "monster well" in 2018. Look at its production as of November, 2016:

• 28590, 1,258, WPX, Victor Elk 32-29HB, Reunion Bay, 25 stages; 3.5 million lbs; t1/15; cum 242K 11/16;

Not very remarkable by today's standards except that it was completed tested in early 2015, and less than two years later was at 242,000 bbls.

But, now look at this:

• 28590, 1,258, WPX, Victor Elk 32-29HB, Reunion Bay; t1/15; cum 367K 9/18;

In less than two years, another 125,000 bbls.

But not only that, it did something we are not supposed to see in a well. After declining production, all of a sudden in January, 2018, this well had a huge jump in production. The "peak oil" folks / conventional oil folks tell us that is not supposed to happen during primary production.

The well was taken off line for eighteen (18) days when it came back and produced almost 17,000 bbls in one month (over 27 days it extrapolates to 18,443 bbls over 30 days). 

Apparently this is not seen in conventional oil wells. I don't know. I never followed the oil industry until I started following the Bakken. But reading the peak oil blogs, it's my impression that jumps in production once a well starts to decline is not generally seen. Whatever. 

Relevant portion of production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	5451	5458	2163	6275	5087	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	6919	6924	2661	8060	6696	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	7183	7220	3173	7952	6511	48
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	7885	7884	3489	8728	6382	908
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	8663	8672	4388	9589	7428	609
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	7659	7613	6834	8478	6895	275
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	5500	5466	6482	6088	4761	460
BAKKEN	2-2018	20	4951	5027	6295	5481	3022	1730
BAKKEN	1-2018	27	16599	16784	7564	18375	12960	3396
BAKKEN	12-2017	12	1399	1353	1112	1509	801	406
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	4854	4949	2194	5373	3135	1334
BAKKEN	10-2017	22	3509	3274	1701	3884	1926	1241

So, this well must have been re-fracked.

Nope. No FracFocus data and and no sundry form to suggest this well was re-fracked. I guess it just happened.

By the way, there are two other Victor Elk wells on this 3-well pad. One of the two has been inactive / off line for quite some time; the other showed a jump in production but much less obvious, and that jump may or may not be significant or noteworthy.

Random Update Of The Petro-Hunt Thompson Wells In Charlson Oil Field -- November 5, 2018

No evidence (no sundry form and no FracFocus data) to suggest this well was re-fracked.

The well:

• 18111, IAW/776, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 8D-4-4H, Charlson, 11 stages; 1.2 million lbs; t5/11; cum 619K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 7/20; relevant production profile --

BAKKEN	9-2018	30	16490	16727	1963	209	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	18008	18058	1972	25584	25368	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	18726	18654	2234	26482	26212	54
BAKKEN	6-2018	29	18521	18490	4902	26914	26713	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	30	16177	15974	5943	23619	23407	3
BAKKEN	4-2018	7	2414	2531	272	3432	3383	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	13360	13543	1078	17386	17170	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	12281	12198	1020	15598	15403	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	14356	14462	1247	18249	18033	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	15600	15655	1417	20020	19804	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	16570	16439	1736	21634	21425	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	17802	17794	2319	25838	25622	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	10	6087	5680	1165	8031	7566	395
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	21	1280	1495	122	2318	2172	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	1897	1758	173	3401	3138	54
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	1964	2005	208	3685	3350	119
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	1997	2087	200	3675	3436	30
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	2101	2045	193	3732	3516	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	1963	1890	185	3479	3175	109

The graphic:

27918, relevant part of production profile, taken off line for less than a month:

BAKKEN	2-2018	28	5037	4880	1360	5591	5206	190
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	6498	6636	1480	6483	6267	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	7907	7674	1932	9175	7940	1033
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	10389	10593	3118	15796	5298	10289
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	12414	12686	3255	18593	0	18377
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	12363	11797	3310	18206	0	18025
BAKKEN	8-2017	3	331	472	143	638	617	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	3353	3189	1487	5597	5381	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	2986	3294	1298	3828	3731	97
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	2743	2618	1190	4955	1519	3436
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	3421	3401	1363	4830	4830	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	3784	3631	1355	4988	4988	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	3705	3964	1348	4788	4788	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	4039	3984	1387	4813	4813	0

27208, relevant part of production profile, taken off line for less than a month :

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	7673	7549	2743	20288	17316	2763
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	8209	8473	3222	20571	19958	397
BAKKEN	7-2018	30	8055	8017	3028	20771	17668	2901
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	9390	9547	4778	22124	21434	481
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	9702	9493	3503	23476	23168	92
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	9603	9789	4073	23102	22075	818
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	11137	11215	3578	25090	24874	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	10815	10760	3632	22717	21980	542
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	12081	12092	3947	23406	23190	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	12802	12759	3467	22487	22271	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	13347	13333	3473	24488	10475	13804
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	15604	15618	3143	27292	0	27076
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	14613	14131	2552	23480	0	23299
BAKKEN	8-2017	3	554	914	117	2110	2089	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	5740	5789	1252	20515	20299	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	6092	6129	1372	20436	19751	476
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	5926	5669	1350	19643	6863	12564
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	6219	6267	1415	20129	19920	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	6152	6245	1415	21242	21026	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	6308	6339	1423	20627	20432	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	7154	7453	1788	23650	23434	0

30369, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-3H, fracked/tested 9/17; max production after frack, 24,728 bbls/28 days; max natural gas, 29,546 million cf = 5,000 boe

30368, Thompson 153-95-8D-6-2H, fracked/tested 9/17; max production after frack, 23,307 bbls/31 days;

30685, USA 153-95-9C-4-3H, fracked/tested 8/17; max production after frack, 15,745 bbls/31 days;