Tesla Rumors -- Tesla Will Be Supplying Saudi Arabia Solar Panels For Their Multi-Billion-Dollar Solar Farm Project -- April 1, 2018

Rumors over at twitter. Based on Sunday tweets from Elon Musk it's not unlikely. This would connect a lot of dots.

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Shaden Approaching Malacca / Singapore

See this post. 

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 1, 2018

Friday, April 6, 2018:
33827, SI/NC, Hess, CA-E Burdick-LW-155-95-2017H-1, Beaver Lodge, no production data, 
33130, 1,220, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24H, Todd, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; mesh/large/ceramic, a huge well; on the south side of the tracks on the south side of Williston; t10/17; cum 137K 2/18;
32808, 1,464, CLR, Oakdale 9-13H, Jim Creek, 4 sections, 61 stages; 14.2 million lbs, a nice well; the Oakdale and Ryden wells are tracked here; t1/18; cum 33K 2/18;
32585, 1,620, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 10-19H1, Elm Tree, Three Forks B1, 61 stages; 10 million lbs, mesh/large/medium, a very nice well; t11/17; cum 96K 2/18;
32578, 1,768, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 6-19H1, Elm Tree, Three Forks B1, 62 stages; 15 million lbs, mesh/large, a huge well; t11/17; cum 113K 2/18;

Thursday, April 5, 2018:
33828, SI/NC, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-10, Capa, no production data,  
32983, 1,734, Whiting, Frick 24-8-1TFH, Banks, Three Forks, 39 stages; 8.7 million lbs, large/small, a very nice well; see this recent post; t10/17; cum 97K 2/18;
29562, 230, Foundation Energy, Lardy 44-6, a wildcat, producing nicely, southwest corner of the state; about 50 miles due west of Dickinson; a Red River well; t12/17; cum 12K 2/18;

Wednesday, April 4, 2018:
33829, SI/NC, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-9, Capa, no production data,
32823, 2,013, Whiting, Flatland 24-9-2XH, Banks, a very nice well, 40 stages; 10.3 million lbs, small/medium; the Whiting Flatland wells are tracked here; t10/17; cum 127K 2/18;
32809, 1,086, CLR, Oakdale 10-13H1, Jim Creek, a nice well; Three Forks B2; four sections; 63 stages; 14.1 million lbs;  t1/18; cum 27K after 39 days; 
32584, 1,600, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 9-19H, Elm Tree; a huge well, 61 stages; 10.1 million lbs; mesh/medium, t11/17; cum 147K 2/18; 45K 12/17; 140K cum;
31126, SI/NC, Enerplus, Bengal 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 

Tuesday, April 3, 2018:
33830, SI/NC, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-8, Capa, no production data,
32757, 470, Oasis, White 5198 12-6 5B, Siverston, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, t10/17; cum 118K 2/18;
33419, 1,113, Enerplus, Trumpet 148-94-13AH, McGregory Buttes; 320-acre spacing; 19 stages; 4.7 million lbs; mes/small; t10/17; cum 57K 2/18;
32984, 1,094, Whiting, Frick 24-8-2TFH, Banks, Three Forks, 40 stages; 9.1 million lbs, t10/17; cum 54K 2/18;
32615, SI/NC, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 14-26 10T, North Tobacco Garden, no production; 
31492, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1A-7-5H, Charlson, no production data,

Monday, April 2, 2018:
33831, SI/NC, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-7,
33813, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14-2H,
33652, 548, Sinclair, Ian Quicksilver 19-20-1H, Lone Butte, 39 stages; 9.6 million lbs, mesh/medium, t12/17; cum 8K over 31 days;
32673, n/d, WPX, Big Horn 32-29HT, Reunion Bay, Three Forks B1, 41 stages; 6.1 million lbs; t12/17; cum 42K over 46 days;
32583, 1,544, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 8-19H2,  Elm Tree, Three Forks B2; 61 stages; 10 million lbs, large/mesh; t11/17; cum 80K 2/18;
32141, n/d, Berenergy, Borstad 30-4, Chatfield, a Madison well, stimulated formation: Wayne; t10/17; cum 6K 2/18

Sunday, April 1, 2018:
32672, 1,853, WPX, Big Horn 32-29HF, Reunion Bay, 41 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t1/18; cum 56K 2/18;
32576, 1,524, CLR, Tarentaise Federal 4-19H2, Elm Tree, Three Forks B2, 61 stages; 15 million lbs, large/mesh; t10/17; cum 99K 2/18;

Saturday, March 31, 2018:
None (there was no September 31st six months ago)

Friday, March 30, 2018:
32671, 1,314, WPX, Big Horn 32-29HX, Reunion Bay, Three Forks B1; 41 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t1/18; cum 35K 2/18;
31128, SI/NC, Enerplus, Tabby 147-93-06A-07H TF, Reunion Bay; 

Great Easter Treat -- Then And Now -- Fargo Flooding -- 2009

From Vern Whitten:

Nine years ago the Red River Valley was facing record flooding. Here are some photos from then and now - plus a few extras for fun. (Each flood site has a photo from 2009 and the same site taken recently.)

Here is the link: http://www.vernwhittenphotography.net/far318/.

If you enjoy the photos, take a second to send a thank you note to Mr Whitten.

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

It took quite a bit of work for Mr Whitten going through the old files to find the photographs he wanted to use, and then go back and fly over the area and get photographs using the same reference point. Many, many story lines, of course.

The best photo? That lone tree, then, and the forest, now.

Second best photo? The mid-air photo of the jet. LOL. Very well done.

Correlating Well Completions WIth Production In The Bakken -- April 1, 2018

Looking at QEP's re-frack program it dawned on me that I quit tracking monthly well completions quite some time ago.

Back on June 19, 2015, this note from the Director's Cut (April 2015) data:

• Bakken price in May: $44.70 
• Fracklog: 925 (an increase of 45); I had thought it would have been closer to 1,000 
• Completions: 94 -- a very, very low number; many wells going to SI/NC status  
• To maintain production near 1.2 million bopd: 110 - 120 completions needed each month 
• Statewide flaring: 18%  
• That figure is from Lynn Helms, back in 2015: to maintain production near 1.2 million bopd, 110 - 120 completions need to be made each month.

Disclaimer: there may be typographical and factual errors in the data below, but they will be insignificant and won't affect the comments/observations.

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Daily Production By Month vs Well Completions in That Month

January, 2018

• 1.176 million bbls/day
• wells completed in January: 56

December, 2017

• 1.181 million bbls/day
• wells completed in December: 106

November, 2017

• 1.19 million bbls/day
• wells completed in November: 60

October, 2017

• 1.185 million bbls/day
• wells completed in October: 81

September, 2017

• 1.1 million bbls
• wells completed in September: 70

August, 2017

• 1.08 million bbls
• wells completed in August: 84

July, 2017

• 1.05 million bbls
• wells completed in July: 95

June, 2017

• 1.03 million bbls/day
• wells completed in June: 88

May, 2017

• 1.04 million bbls/day
• wells completed in May: 66

April, 2017

• 1.05 million bbls/day
• wells completed in April: 53

March, 2017

• 1.025 million bbls/day
• wells completed in March: 61

February, 2017

• 1.034 million bbls/day
• wells completed in February: 61

January, 2017

• 0.98 million bbls/day
• wells completed in January: 56

December, 2016

• 0.94 million bbls/day
• wells completed in December: 84

November, 2016

• 1.03million bbls/day
• wells completed in November: 84

October, 2016

• 1.04 million bbls/day
• wells completed in November: 46

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Observations / Comments

It appears that significantly less than 100 well completions are needed each month to maintain production at 1.2 million bbls/day in North Dakota. In October, 2016, with 46 well completions, production was slightly over 1 million bbls/day

Daily production correlates not at all (or very minimally) with the number of well completions in any given month (assuming the number of well completions is in the range of 50 to 100; and that assumption may not be necessary, either)

• October, 2016: 46 completions; production over 1 million bbls
• December, 2016, only two months later: 84 completions; production does not hit the one-million-bbl threshold 
• December, 2017: 106 completions and production did not vary much in the big scheme of things

The single most important metric not provided in the monthly Director's Cut that affects daily production: full re-fracks; even that data would, in isolation, not be particularly helpful -- see below

Other factors affecting daily production (seasonally adjusted):

• wells coming off-line when new wells are being fracked; wells coming back on-line when neighboring wells have been fracked (QEP noted this challenge in the Bakken; a challenge they say they won't see to the same extent in the Permian); 
• mini-re-fracks
• work-overs

Other factors affecting daily production

• weather events

Spot price of crude oil probably has little affect on number of well completions: CAPEX and drilling schedules are in place well in advance of actual well completions; same goes for fracking and re-fracking

Fracking and re-fracks in North Dakota must drive the CFO crazy, as mentioned above:

• wells coming off-line when new wells are being fracked; wells coming back on-line when neighboring wells have been fracked (QEP noted this challenge in the Bakken; a challenge they say they won't see to the same extent in the Permian);
• although the CFOs now have sophisticated formulas to estimate how much oil will be shut in and for how long; and, how much oil will come back on line once a new well is fracked / re-fracked, clearly the operators are significantly challenged in this arena -- QEP has certainly spent a lot of time looking at this issue based on their most recent earnings call
• with regard to how much oil will come back on line when a well is fracked or re-fracked, we are not talking about a single well; we are talking about all the offset wells that were shut in while a well was fracked/re-fracked
• I've seen offset wells shut in for less than 30 days and I've seen offset wells shut in for four months while a neighboring well is being fracked / re-fracked -- I thought that was simply the cost of doing business; apparently in the Permian, QEP has determined this is something