When You Look At This Graphic, Remember: It's Been A Warm Winter So Far -- December 20, 2018

Updates

December 23, 2018: from a reader who follows this very, very closely -- see first comment --

Here's the same historical comparisons that I ran last week:

Putting this week's storage data into historical perspective, the 2,773 billion cubic feet of natural gas that we had in storage on December 14th was 15.8% lower than the previous five year low for the 2nd week of December of 3,295 billion cubic feet that was set on December 12th of 2014, and was 12.4% below the previous 10 year low of 3167 billion cubic feet that was set on December 12th of 2008. 

This year's December 14th storage level was also 1.0% below the 15 year low of 2,802 billion cubic feet of natural gas that we had in storage on December 16th of 2005, and 2.7% below the 2,850 billion cubic feet that were in storage on December 12th of 2003, a year when supplies had peaked at a lower level than this one. 

We have to follow the archived records back 16 years, to December 13th of 2002, when 2,635 billion cubic feet of natural gas were in storage, to find a lower quantity of natural gas in storage at this time in December than we have now. 

Here's a temperature graphic from the EIA gas storage dashboard in support of Platt's forecasts for smaller withdrawals: https://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/December222018regionalaveragetemperaturesfromDec7toDec20.jpg 

It's pretty clear that the week to the 20th was much warmer than the prior one in every region. 

But forecasts for January are looking closer to normal again, and January will be the tell as to whether we get in trouble before spring or not.

Later, 3:28 p.m. CT: the NG withdrawal was huge this past week, but it is expected withdrawals will be reduced in the coming weeks. From Platts. 

Original Post 

Link here.

The small print:

• five-year average: 3,493 Bcf.
• current inventory: 720 Bcf below that five-year average.
• 720 is 20% of 3,493.
• current inventory: 2,773 Bcf.
• 2,773 is slightly less than 80% of the five-year average.

Let's hope the winter stays warm.

All in all, it's a pretty stunning graphic, and a pretty stunning number this week. The natural gas market does not reflect the deficit: natural gas is trading for $3.16 today, down about a percent.

Same graphic with lots of lines: