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Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA -- Flat; Unremarkable Report; WTI After Report Released -- Up $1.00 To $47.61

Updates

Later, 8:52 p.m. Central Time: see first comment -- from a most knowledgeable reader on this subject -- I had "blown" this off -- not given it much thought (for various reasons) but the reader puts it in perspective and notes it is more important than I realized. From the reader:
The 4.237 million barrel drop in distillates inventories is worth mentioning, especially in light of low coal & gas supplies The drop in distillates was primarily driven by a 417,000 barrels per day increase to 4,886,000 barrels per day in product supplied, the 2nd highest on record, topped only by January 31 2003, which I would read as heat oil demand
That now puts our distillate (heat oil) supplies 11% below the 5 year average going into the gut of winter, & might strain another fuel switching option, should the weather get cold enough to need it.
In other words, as long as we have a warm winter, we might be okay --- but if we have a cold snap, it could get very interesting, very fast
Original Post

Link here.
  • US crude oil inventories: decreased by 0.5 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventory: 441.5 million bbls; 7% above five-year average for this time of the year
  • refiners working at 95.4% capacity; a bit on the slightly low side
  • gasoline / distillate fuel production: no significant change
  • for the first time in a long time, jet fuel supplied decreased; was down 5.8% compared with same four-week period last year
Time to re-balance:
Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.90
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.50
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.20
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.00
Never
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.50
Never at this rate

2 comments:

  1. the 4.237 million barrel drop in distillates inventories is worth mentioning, especially in light of low coal & gas supplies...it was primarily driven by a 417,000 barrels per day increase to 4,886,000 barrels per day in product supplied, the 2nd highest on record, topped only by January 31 2003, which i'd read as heat oil demand...that now puts our distillate (heat oil) supplies 11% below the 5 year average going into the gut of winter, & might strain another fuel switching option, should the weather get cold enough to need it..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Much appreciated. I didn't catch the "nuances," although 11% below the 5-year average is hardly subtle. Again, thank you for taking the time to write; to put this in perspective.

      Delete

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