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Friday, December 14, 2018

"Helis Grail" Case Study -- December 14, 2018

Back-of-the-envelope calculations.

I was curious after a reader asked about Vantage Energy Acquisition Corporation.

The data below is for the "Helis Grail," the Grail oil field in North Dakota, and specifically, the Bakken pool in that field.  The "Helis Grail" is tracked at this post; it has not been updated in quite some time.

The "Helis Grail" oil field is "owned" by one operator.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I often make simple arithmetic errors. I did this quickly and there will be errors. The way I do things / the way I look at things are often deemed bizarre. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

For newbies:
  • Extrapolating from actual number of days production each month to hypothetical 30-day month only works after steady state reached. In spreadsheet below, the data for this metric is probably meaningful for only September, 2018, and January, 2018.
  • The decline rate is well known in the Bakken
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Data Points for Oil / Natural Gas Production in the Grail-Bakken

Link to NDIC's monthly production report index.

January, 2016 (31-day month)
  • 159 wells
  • days: 3759
  • oil: 840,089 bbls
  • gas: 1,241,917 MCF
January, 2017 (31-day month)
  • 182 wells
  • days: 4808
  • oil: 720,811 bbls
  • gas: 1,458,762 MCF
January, 2018 (31-day month)
  • 203 wells
  • days: 5824
  • oil: 669,332 bbls
  • gas: 1,851,525 MCF
September, 2018 (30-day month)
  • 203 wells
  • days: 5778
  • oil: 600,347 bbls
  • gas: 1,820,738 MCF


September 2018
January 2018
January 2017
January 2016





Number of wells
203
203
182
159
Oil Production
600,347
669,332
720,811
840,089
BOE natural gas
303,406
308,536
243,086
206,952
Total BOE
903,753
977,868
963,897
1,047,041
Average BOE / well
4,452
4,817
5,296
6,585
Days production
5,778
5,824
4,808
3,759
Average days production / well
28
29
26
24
Extrapolate full 30-day production average
4,692
5,037
6,014
8,356
Average oil production / well
2,957
3,297
3,961
5,284
Average boe production / well
4,452
4,817
5,296
6,585
Oil / BOE ratio
66.43%
68.45%
74.78%
80.23%

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