Well Played, Mr Trump -- Oil Tumbling -- Inexpensive Gasoline Just In Time For The Midterms -- November 6, 2018

This tells me how much influence/power a president has. In this case, the bully pulpit that moved the markets a few months ago; and then the power to grant waivers, completely disrupting the markets. Had this happened under the Obama administration, not a few of us would have been crying foul. LOL.

WTI is now below $62. Who would have ever thought? Crude oil is now trading in "bear market" territory.

I assume the "peak oil" folks have an explanation for this, too. My hunch is they will tell us this has to do with "peak demand," not "peak oil/peak supply" and nothing to do with politics.

Either way, well played, Mr Trump, driving WTI to lowest levels since April, 2018, when folks were talking about $100-oil, or "worse."

In response to concerns about all the Iranian oil coming off the global market, it appears the US shale operators, Russia (hitting new production records) and Saudi Arabia all produced as much as they could.

And now this: not only did the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia easily make up the "expected" Iranian shortfall, the US granted enough Iranian waivers to keep the VLCC's in high demand.

One thing not being talked about: a few months ago, it was said Trump would be talking to Saudi pressuring the kingdom to open the spigots so that gasoline would not be sky-high during the midterms. How much leverage did Trump have prior to October 2, 2018? Probably not much.

After October 2, 2018 - how much leverage did Trump have? Infinite. And Saudi Arabia opened the spigots.

Quick: what happened on/about October 2, 2018?

*******************************

Getting High

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

A reader requested I post this:

*********************************** 

Life Is Like A Box Of Chocolates

Life is like opening a box of chocolates; one never knows what one is going to get. Forrest Gump.

Noq, from The New Journalism, Tom Wolfe, editor, c. 1973.

The Money Game, "Adam Smith," "The Cocoa Game," all about timing in the stock market.

From page 321:

The best chapter written on this problem of timing was done by an unknown second century author who wrote under the pen name of Koholeth, or the Preacher. What survives of Koholeth is not much, but it says all there is to say on the subject. (If ou seem to hear a faint rock beat behind what follows, it is because Pete Seeger made a song, "Turn, Turn, Turn," out of this passage of Koholeth and the Byrds made a hit record of it.) In later versions of the Old Testament, Koholeth appears as Ecclesiastes, so you have the best chapter on timing right there on your shelf already.

Ecclesiastes: a biography of "Kohelet" -- traditionally translated as "Preacher."

From wiki: "After the introduction come the words of Kohelet. As king he has experienced everything and done everything, but nothing is ultimately reliable. Death levels all."

That reminds me of Keynes: "In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again."