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Sunday, November 25, 2018

Production By Association -- A Kermit Well -- November 25, 2018

Lots of fracking activity taking place in this area recently.



Let's take a look at this well:
  • 16792, 689, BR, Kermit 1-32H, Pershing, t5/08; cum 166K 9/18; recent production -- that 5,060 bbls in 17 days extrapolates to 9,000 bbls over 30 days --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-201817506052624608201919770
BAKKEN8-201821360228270
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-2018267896741274583930
BAKKEN4-2018301098140315471658854
BAKKEN3-2018239127043327096520
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-201710171044464210
BAKKEN11-201730727966103165715830
BAKKEN10-2017317937041261582141491
BAKKEN9-2017306886851631464133852
BAKKEN8-201731606658110174616690
BAKKEN7-201731935912130185317760

This well was drilled back in 2008. By today's standards it was not a good well. But we talked about that at the time. Regardless of whether it was a good well or not, it was not a dry hole and it held the lease by production.

Now, we are getting great wells in the area, and because of "production by association," this well will likely turn into a great well.

It was my understanding that once a well reached "peak production" it would show steady decline after that.

These Bakken wells are going to produce for 30 years and they will go through the Bakken life-cycle of frack, re-work; neighboring fracks; mini re-fracks; re-work; major re-fracks over those 30 years. This well is already ten years old and has had no major work done on it -- based on NDIC sundry forms -- during all that time. Biggest associated expense, I support, disposing of produced water.

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The Literature Page

Somehow I missed this in all my years of "formal" education, but by reading for pleasure I came upon the concept of "originality" in literature, a common theme for Harold Bloom. After reading Harold Bloom years ago, I enjoy looking for examples of "originality."

Today, another great example in Karen Armstrong's Biography of the Bible, c. 2007.

Page 26:
In P's (the Priestly school in Babylonian exile that revised J and E's writings, added Leviticus and Numbers to the torah), the exile was the latest in a sequence of migrations: Adam and Even had been expelled from Eden; Cain condemned to a life of homeless vagrancy after murdering Abel; the human race had been scattered at the Tower of Babel; Abraham had left Ur; the tribes had emigrated to Egypt, and eventually lived as nomads in the desert. In their latest dispersal, the exiles must build a community to which the presence (of the Lord) could return.

In a startling innovation, P suggested that the entire people observe the purity laws of the temple personnel. Everybody must live as though he were serving the divine presence. Israel must be "holy" (qaddosh) and "separate" like Yahweh, so P crafted a way of life based on the principle of separation.

The exiles must live apart from their Babylonian neighbours, observing distinctive rules of diet and cleanliness. Then -- and only then -- Yahweh would live among them.

"I will place my tabernacle in your midst," God told them, "and I will walk about among you."
Babylonia could become another Eden, where God had walked with Adam int he cool of the evening.
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Winging Their Way Back Home From California

4 comments:

  1. I'm in this one and wouldn't have noticed otherwise, good to see. Oddly Conoco didn't issue a supplemental AFE for this one. The rework was either cheap or they have a high rework price option written into the original AFE. A 7x production of before the rework is impressive. I'll keep an eye on it to see how quickly the production declines. Nice catch!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Generally speaking, it seems to the be an exception where the jump in production persists for a long time -- so, I expect a jump in production to last a month or so, and then drop back quickly. There are exceptions of course.

      Individually, each well with a jump in production (for whatever reason) won't "move the needle" across the Bakken but with the number of old wells now showing jumps in production, it will have an effect on overall North Dakota production.

      Regardless, good for you on this one -- a nice holiday present. LOL.

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    2. The general rule is that if its a monster well my NRI is .000005% if it's decent or non-economic .005%. Maybe I'll get a nice coffee out of it.

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    3. That's pretty funny. That's about the way it is. "We" can't win.

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