Nothing New Under The Sun -- November 22, 2018

The article at the link below was from November 30, 2014. 

We've seen this movie before: The [London] Telegraph (link here).

Saudis risk playing with fire in shale-price showdown as crude crashes A deep slump in prices might heighten geostrategic turmoil across the Middle East

Saudi Arabia and the core Opec states are taking an immense political gamble by letting crude oil prices crash to $66 a barrel, if their aim is to shake out the weakest shale producers in the US. A deep slump in prices might equally heighten geostrategic turmoil across the broader Middle East and boomerang against the Gulf’s petro-sheikhdoms before it inflicts a knock-out blow on US rivals.

Caliphate leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has already opened a “second front” in North Africa, targeting Algeria and Libya – two states that live off energy exports – as well as Egypt and the Sahel as far as northern Nigeria.

“The resilience of US shale may prove greater than the resilience of Opec,” said Alistair Newton, head of political risk at Nomura.

Chris Skrebowski, former editor of Petroleum Review, said the Saudis want to cut the annual growth rate of US shale output from 1m barrels per day (bpd) to 500,000 bpd to bring the market closer to balance.

“They want to unnerve the shale oil model and undermine financial confidence, but they won’t stop the growth altogether,” he said.

There is no question that the US has entirely changed the global energy landscape and poses an existential threat to Opec. America has cut its net oil imports by 8.7m bpd since 2006, equal to the combined oil exports of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.

The country had a trade deficit of $354bn in oil and gas as recently as 2011. Citigroup said this will return to balance by 2018, one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in modern economic history.

“When it comes to crude and other hydrocarbons, the US is bursting at the seams,” said Edward Morse, Citigroup’s commodities chief. “This situation is unlikely to stop, even if prevailing prices for oil fall significantly. The US should become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products combined by 2019, if not 2018.”

From the EIA, an explanation.

US crude oil production and imports.

Net oil and gas exporter in five years. Article written February 11, 2018. Same thing, from CNBC/Department of Energy.

Texas Gulf coast exports more oil than it imports for the first time, August 23, 2018.

The US to be the world's biggest exporter of oil, May 6, 2018.

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The Movie Page

If you are into this kind of movie, The Girl in the Spider's Web, is incredibly good. Quick notes.

It took me about "half the movie" before I was able to "warm up" to the new Blomqvist and Lisbeth.

This is a sequel, but a completely different story line.

The first in the series, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, had a much, much better story line, but the sequel is much, much better with the gadgetry and giving more depth/time to Lisbeth and her one-man tech support team.

Some very, very clever devices in the sequel; much better than the first movie.

In the first movie, both Lisbeth and Blomqvist were 3-dimensional; I had empathy for both. In the sequel, no chemistry between the characters and me. Nor did I see any chemistry between Lisbeth and Blomqvist in the second movie.

I was never on the "edge of my seat" watching the sequel; one knew who would be standing at the end of the movie; we simply watched to see "how" it would end. 

The Girl in the Spider's Web makes Tom Cruise/Mission Impossible series look like kid's play. Lisbeth and her one-man tech support team easily, easily out-cruises Tom Cruise and his "army" of support.

No disguises of note in the sequel; disguises in the first Girl were superb.

Gadgetry in the sequel made the gadgetry in a James Bond look like a high school science project.

No humor in either Tattoo or Spider's Web.

Much more eroticism in the first movie; no eroticism in the second movie that I can recall.

You can watch the sequel without seeing the first, but I would not recommend it.

One huge fault: why did Lisbeth not kill her nemesis/her most violent adversary when she had the chance? Yes, I know "the movie" needed him, but Lisbeth did not.

Overall, I think both the original Lisbeth and the original Blomqvist were much, much better; one might argue about Blomqvist, but no argument about Lisbeth. The original actress set the bar. It was not raised in this movie. 

Sloop John B, The Fendertones   Scott Totten, musical director of The Beach Boys is one of the vocalists. The video was posted back in 2014.