Traveling Today -- Quick, Miscellaneous Notes -- October 11, 2018

Natural gas: more and more, this looks like this might be the energy story of the year --

Jobs: link here --

• forecast: 207K
• actual: 214K

EIA weekly petroleum report -- link here:

• huge crude oil build (and it could be worse next week): 6 million bbls; now at 410 million bbls; my threshold 400 million bbls
• refiners at a meagerly 89% operating capacity; wow; winter turnover; maintenance?
• crude oil imports averaging 5.3% more than same four-week period last year (the country needs the "right kind" of oil)
• gasoline production below 10 million bbls/day but distillate fuel production steady at 5.0 million bbls/day
• gasoline provided is trending down, but jet fuel use is trending up

The road to New York: link here. From a reader --

• Drill, baby, drill ...
• While Upstate New York withers, due to Cuomo's hatred of natural gas ........
• Shell to employ 6,000 construction workers to build plastic plant in Pennsylvania .......
• SIX THOUSAND WORKERS employed while upstate NY withers due to anti-natural gas policies by those in Albany ..

GDP -- link here, latest forecast -- October 10, 2018 -- 3Q18 -- 4.2% --

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.2 percent on October 10, up from 4.1 percent on October 5.

After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 2.09 percentage points to 2.20 percentage point.

Market crash: we'll see where we are six months from now. Investors don't often get these opportunities.