Natural Gas Won't Be An Issue This Winter -- Natural Gas Supply Assocation -- October 3, 2018

Updates

October 15, 2018: oh-oh. Maybe the Natural Gas Supply Association spoke too soon. From SeekingAlpha -- 

Bullish weather forecasts again led to a sharp rally in core winter natural gas contracts to start the week, boosting November natural gas prices by more than $0.08 to $3.242/MMBtu, and spot gas jumped $0.17 to $3.135/MMBtu as early-season cold drove up demand across much of the U.S.

With unseasonably low temperatures expected to persist through the end of October, NatGasWeather expects the coming weather pattern to further raise storage inventory deficits vs. the five-year average to more than 650 Bcf and likely toward 700 Bcf.

The background state will remain bullish for quite some time until record production finally shows signs of improving deficits, “something that’s not expected to happen until after October due to the coming colder-than-normal pattern," the forecaster says.

In the SeekingAlpha note above, the writer suggests the deficit could trend toward 700 Bcf. In the graphic from last week, "stocks were 627 Bcf less than last year at this time and 607 Bcf below the five-year average.

My 30-second elevator speech:

• natural gas will be the talk of the town in New England as prices rise from $3-nat gas to $6-nat gas
• natural gas will be the talk of the town but there will be no crises, no emergencies; the drillers and natural gas suppliers will be able to respond -- after all, this is Trump's America 
• Elizabeth Warren will have all the answers

History of natural gas prices, link here:

August 3, 2018: natural gas reserves are "dangerously low."

Original Post
October 3, 2018 

If this turns out to be accurate, there is no reason for someone like me to track the natural gas fill rate any more. If we get through a "cold" winter with no problems this winter, I will no longer follow the natural gas fill rate.

From twitter:

From Platts:

The Natural Gas Supply Association anticipates lower storage levels will be countered by soaring production this winter, resulting in neutral pressure on wholesale natural gas prices, despite record domestic consumption this winter.

The outlook anticipates a record demand of 102.7 Bcf/d, mostly tied to an increase in electric sector and industrial use of gas, as well as exports, combining to add 3.4 Bcf/d, on average, to consumption.

On the supply side, lower storage inventories at the start of the winter -- 3.3 Tcf versus about 3.8 Tcf last winter -- were seen as exerting upward pressure on prices this winter compared with last. In contrast, offering downward pressure, production this winter was forecast to average 84.9 Bcf/d, up from 77.4 Bcf/d last winter.

Much more at the link.