Natural Gas? The Energy Story This Winter? I Thought It Would Be New England. It Might Be British Columbia -- October 23, 2018

Updates

October 26, 2018: follow-up; prices spike.  

Original Post 

Wow, isn't this the height of irony?

Quick! Name the Canadian province that was instrumental in killing the TransMountain Pipeline expansion project (crude oil). Yeah, British Columbia.

Quick! Name the company that built, sold, and if built, will be the operator of the TransMountain Pipeine. Yup, TransCanada. 

So, now fast forward. From oilprice.com and also at the FortisBC webpage:

A natural gas pipeline explosion that occurred earlier this month near the city of Prince George will reduce supply to British Columbia by between 20 and 50 percent this winter, the gas distribution company said in a statement.

FortisBC said that although it had planned on having the ruptured pipe up and running by mid-November, it will not be able to fill it to capacity. At best, it would operate at 80 percent of capacity for the winter.

So, British Columbia is facing winter with a significant natural gas shortage.

FortisBC is turning to -- you got it -- to TransCanada for help.

To compensate, FortisBC said it was in talks with TransCanada to increase the flow along the Southern Crossing pipeline from Alberta. At the same time, the company said, it was working with industrial gas consumers to optimize their consumption. In its update, the company appealed to household consumers to also try and optimize their consumption of the fuel during peak demand season.

I could be wrong but I think TransCanada's Southern Crossing (Gas Transmission Northwest -- GTN) transports natural gas to the US west coast (Washington State, Oregon, and California) from western Canada. One wonders if there could be a domino effect on US west coast. Maybe a reader knows.

From the home page of FortisBC:

Due to transmission constraints, FortisBC is reaching out to customers to let them know that our regional natural gas supply, including the province, will be limited to 50 to 80 per cent of normal levels.

This means that the natural gas system will be challenged in times of high demand throughout the winter. As such, FortisBC is asking all of its customers to be conscious of their natural gas use and conserve energy wherever possible.

On Friday, October 19th, Enbridge released a statement announcing that, subject to regulatory approval, they expect their ruptured 36-inch natural gas transmission line to be repaired and in service by mid-November. However, both the 36 and 30-inch transmission lines will only be running at 80 per cent capacity and are not expected to return to maximum operating pressure throughout the winter.

We are actively working to make more gas available for our customers. For example, we’ve worked with TransCanada to maximize output of the Southern Crossing pipeline that feeds into the Interior from Alberta and are actively working with industrial customers to optimize their energy use – keeping them running while minimizing system impacts. We are also working on securing additional natural gas in the open marketplace to best support the province’s gas supply.

At the FortisBC home page: