Morning Note -- October 2, 2018

Nothing to worry about -- Bloomberg -- Iranian sanctions will take, on a daily basis, 1.5 million barrels of the right kind of oil off the market, but OPEC is already pushing production -- 30,000 bbls  more than the month before ...

Already at "$100-oil. See this post -- the one where Art Berman says to ignore the hype -- 

• Bloomberg op-ed supports my idle rambling
• for emerging markets and the poor, $75-oil is $100-oil

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Canadian LNG

Updates

October 3, 2018: environmental update here.

Original Post

LNG: Shell approves $14 billion project -- WSJ -- data points --

• the biggest LNG development to gain approval in years and the first for Canada
• by the mid-2020s, it is expected to be able to deliver massive tankers of supercooled natural gas to demand centers in Asia
• marks the end of a seven-year effort, blighted by weak prices that pushed back the final investment decision on the project by two years
• Canada just imposed 10% tariff on US natural gas
• bode poorly for US firms trying to decide whether to build LNG export terminals in the US 

But Bloomberg says its a $31 billion project-- Bloomberg via Rigzone --

Royal Dutch Shell Plc and its four partners have agreed to invest in a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas project in western Canada -- the largest new one of its kind in years that would carve out the fastest route to Asia for North American gas.

LNG Canada -- comprised of Shell, Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd, Mitsubishi Corp., PetroChina Co. and Korea Gas Corp. -- is set to announce a final investment decision on the C$40 billion ($31 billion) project as early as Monday. The exact timing still hasn’t been decided. PetroChina and Korea Gas announced approvals of their share of the investment on Friday. The others partners declined to comment.

I assume the total project is $31 billion and Royal Dutch Shell will pony up $14 billion.

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Back to the Bakken

One well coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, October 2, 2018

• 33450, conf, Equinor, Weisz 11-14 3H, Painted Woods, north of Williston, nice well;

Active rigs:

$75.34→	10/2/2018	10/02/2017	10/02/2016	10/02/2015	10/02/2014
Active Rigs	63	57	33	68	190

RBN Energy: US shale exports find new pathways to China.

China exceeded Canada as the largest buyer of U.S. crude exports for the first time in February 2017 and in year-to-date 2018 has averaged 378 Mb/d versus Canada’s 347 Mb/d. Ramping up purchases from virtually nothing in 2015 to more than 500 Mb/d in June 2018 was no small feat — the logistics in getting that much oil across the world include multiple ship-to-ship transfers, several weeks at sea and a whole lot of negotiating between U.S. crude marketers and the major Chinese buyers: Unipec and PetroChina. That already complicated process has recently been made just a little more complicated by the escalating trade war rhetoric between the U.S. and China. In today’s blog, which launches our new Crude Voyager service, we explain how crude flows to China are evolving.