Morning Note -- October 19, 2018

That natural gas shortage? Not to worry -- "everyone" reporting that "mild winter" will reduce US natural gas demand. From Argusmedia.

WTI / active rigs in North Dakota: a reader noted that at $50 oil, there were 50 active rigs in North Dakota; at $70, 70 active rigs. We're both hoping drillers step it up to 120 active rigs. LOL. 

WTI: back to the future -- US oil exports make WTI nearly 24-hour benchmark. Up about 1% in pre-market trading; trading at $69.35.

Crudehead over at twitter: oil pullback (price) will worsen in 1Q19 if Saudi doesn't "pull back."

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today:

• 34218, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Howell-LW-156-91-1107H-3, Ross, no production data,
• 34077, SI/NC, XTO, Ravin 21X-15AXB, Siverston, no production data,
• 33559, 2,488, CLR, Mountain Gap 5-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 15.2 million lbs, t7/18; cum 65K after about one month;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	15	17153	17042	15226	20077	14851	5046
BAKKEN	7-2018	23	40069	40057	40885	52480	31859	20329
BAKKEN	6-2018	4	6389	6102	5748	7148	5677	1423
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	7	1137	1137	6549	1678	0	1678

Active rigs:

$69.35→	10/19/2018	10/19/2017	10/19/2016	10/19/2015	10/19/2014
Active Rigs	70	56	31	66	190

RNB Energy; part 2 -- NEXUS pipeline set to join natural gas traffic jam at Dawn hub.

Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline saw its first natural gas flows this week, as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved partial service on the project, opening another nearly 1 Bcf/d of capacity from Appalachia’s Marcellus/Utica producing region to the Midwest. NEXUS marks the last big westbound takeaway project from the Northeast, except for the remaining pieces of Energy Transfer’s (ETP) Rover Pipeline. It also marks the escalation of gas-on-gas competition in the Midwest market, where U.S. Midcontinent and Canadian gas supplies are also battling it out for market share. Today, we take a closer look at the NEXUS project and its potential implications for the Northeast and Midwest gas markets.

The NEXUS project is a joint venture of Enbridge and DTE Energy that involves a combination of 255 miles of greenfield mainline pipeline and leased capacity on existing third-party systems to move Appalachian gas supply to consuming markets in northern Ohio, southeastern Michigan, as well as the Dawn Hub in Ontario.