Morning Note -- October 18, 2018

Jobs: link here --

• forecast: 215
• actual: 210
• keeping America great

Saudi expansion: says it has increased capacity by 3 million bopd. 

WTI: analysts forecast prices to 2022. Average across the calendar year, looks like they used a straight-edge --http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485240&cust=mam&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

• 2018 (this year): $75
• 2019: $82
• 2020: $85
• 2021: $89
• 2022: $91

Powder River Basin JV: Tallgrass and Silver Creek.

• grow their expanding joint venture
• formed in February, 2018, to develop the Iron Horse Pipeline, an 80-mile, 16-inch crude oil pipeline currently under construction
• Powder River Basin to Guernsy, WY
• expanded JV known as Powder River Gateway, LLC -- will take ownership of the Iron Horse Pipeline, the Powder River Express (PRE) pipelines, and the crude oil terminal facilities in Guernsey, WY
• Iron Horse initial capacity: 100,000 bopd; expandable to 200,000 bopd; expected in-service date of 1Q19
• PRE: 70-mile, 12-inch crude oil pipeline; initial capacity of 90,000 bopd; expandable to 125,000

KMI: form Market Realist -- they really did book a huge gain with sale of TransMountain Pipeline -- and they will end up operating it if it ever comes on-line --

Kinder Morgan (KMI) announced its third-quarter results on October 17 after the markets closed. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $0.21—up ~40% compared to $0.15 in the third quarter of 2017. The reported EPS, including gains on the Trans Mountain sale, was $0.31. The analyst-adjusted EPS was $0.22, which was ~3.6% higher than the consensus estimates for the quarter. Kinder Morgan’s third-quarter revenues were $3.517 billion, which missed the estimates by ~1.2%.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 34689, 627, Hunt Oil, Austin 154-90-27-22H-2, Parshall, 51 stages; 8.4 million lbs, producing nicely, t8/18; cum 30K after 35 days;
• 34078, SI/NC, XTO, Ravin 21X-15E, Siverston, no production data,
• 29776, 1,814, Slawson, Gobbler Federal 6-35-26TFH, Big Bend, 44 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t9/18; cum --

Active rigs:

$68.82↓	10/18/2018	10/18/2017	10/18/2016	10/18/2015	10/18/2014
Active Rigs	70	55	32	67	190

RBN Energy: Permian oil, gas and NGLs -- key takeaways from RBN's PermiCon conference.

Permian oil and gas production may have slammed up against capacity constraints, but that does not mean production growth has ground to a halt. Far from it. In the past 10 weeks, Permian gas production is up another 8% — a gain of almost 700 MMcf/d. Crude production now tops 3.5 MMb/d, with incremental barrels finding their way to market via truck, rail and new pipeline capacity — soon including Plains All American’s new Sunrise project, which will move more Permian crude toward the hub in Cushing, OK. Record-setting volumes of NGLs are streaming their way out of the Permian to Mont Belvieu. This market is moving so fast that if you blink, you’ll miss something important. So to get caught up with all things Permian, last week RBN hosted PermiCon, an industry conference designed to bridge the gap between fundamentals analysis and boots-on-the-ground market intelligence. We think PermiCon accomplished that goal, and in today’s blog we summarize a few of the key points discussed during the conference proceedings.

About 750 industry leaders joined us for the conference. Our content combined six presentations by RBN and the views of 14 CEOs and senior executives with significant operations in the Permian. We had keynotes from John Christmann, CEO Apache, and Alan Armstrong, CEO Williams. Panelists were Kevin Lafferty, SVP Devon; Dan Westcott, President Legacy Reserves; Stephanie Reed, SVP Parsley; Mike Mears, CEO Magellan; Jeremy Goebel, Senior Group VP Plains; Uzi Yemin, CEO Delek; Heath Deneke, EVP Crestwood; Brian Freed, incoming CEO Altus Midstream; Christer Rundlof, CEO WhiteWater; Tom Whitener, President Energy Spectrum; Zach Lee, CEO ARM Energy/Salt Creek; and Ken Snyder, CCO Frontier Energy. These people know what is going on!