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Wednesday, September 19, 2018

WTI Spkes; Bakken Bellwether Operators Climb -- September 19, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Weekly petroleum report:
  • oil price called the crude oil build yesterday, a massive build / a mammoth build which resulted in the price of oil ... drum roll ... staying flat -- see below
EIA data today?
  • a massive drawdown of crude oil inventories: dropped 2.1 million bbls -- on this news? WTI spikes to $71.44 -- Bakken bellwether stocks -- NOG up 0.85% and OAS up 1.7%
  • US crude oil inventories now well below the 400-million-bbl threshold, at 394.1 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories now about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year
  • refineries are only operating at 95.4% of their capacity -- think about those two data points
  • gasoline production and distillate fuel production changes unremarkable
  • the remarkable data point regarding refined product produced? jet fuel produced was up 5% compared to same four-week period last year
  • gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls 
But, wow, look at this, gasoline demand, nice but I can't explain it:


Re-posting: API data and comments from yesterday's data --
API weekly crude oil inventories. We'll start with two movies.
  • the movie I saw
  • price of oil did not move yesterday after the data was released
  • the gasoline "story" is driving the price of oil; not Libya, not Venezuela, not Iran; not China trade war
  • US crude oil inventories unexpectedly grew by 1.25 million bbls
    • the build was a yawner: up 1 million bbls following a week when there was an unprecedented (?) draw of over 8 million bbls
  • gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million bbls vs an expected draw of 104,000 bbls
  • headline: "oil prices up despite massive crude oil build"
  • US crude oil inventories: "mammoth build of 1.25 million bbls"
  • analyst (singular) expectations: a draw of 2.741 million bbls (2,741,000 bbls -- that false precision is stunning - estimated to the nearest thousand bbls -- wow; now I know we're counting the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin)
  • gasoline inventories: a draw of 1.485 million bbls (again, the false precision); vs analysts (plural) prediction of a small draw of 104,000 bbls
  • 1.485 is greater than 1.25 so if "1.25 million is mammoth", then "1.485 must be humongous"
  • "oil prices were up in afternoon trade by around 1/2% compared to last week's prices"
  • the writer did not note that comparing the price of oil immediately before and after the API data was released: no change
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The Dictionary Page

Metonym: one of my favorite words.

I don't recall when I first used that word.

I don't recall if I've ever seen the word "in the wild." Until today.

From buzzfeednews:
In the essay, Ghomeshi wrote about his name becoming a "metonym for everything from male privilege to the need for due process" and about being shamed and humiliated in the wake of the sexual assault allegations against him.

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