The Road To New England -- September 27, 2018

Outages could threaten New England's natural gas market -- Genscape.

Look at the conclusion:

New England is currently forecasted to cool over the next two weeks, bringing significant downside risk, but unexpected heat waves could cause power demand spikes.

Cold snaps could create residential/commercial gas demand for heating, which takes priority over gas demand for power. The ISONE demand forecast for September 24 – 25 only predicts ~15.3 GW of peak load over the next three days.

Power demand was much higher during the last major Stony Point outage on August 16 and 17, peaking at 22.6 GW. During the last few major Stony Point outages, Algonquin Citygate prices did not blow out, but merely spiked.

During the outage this past August, AGT basis spiked to $1.13 after averaging $0.29 for the month up to that point.

Still, this is Algonquin’s longest and most impactful maintenance event in recent memory, and plenty of upside risk abounds in New England’s gas and power markets. Genscape’s power and natural gas analysts will continue to monitor Algonquin and ISONE and update this blog in real-time as these outages progress.

I've read a lot of "expert" analyses in the oil and gas sector over the past eleven (11) years -- since 2007 -- and this one really surprises me. No one has to "read between the lines.

This blows me away:

During the last few major Stony Point outages, Algonquin Citygate prices did not blow out, but merely spiked.

During the outage this past August, AGT basis spiked to $1.13 after averaging $0.29 for the month up to that point.