The Dreaded Bakken Decline -- September 20, 2018

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.
Disclaimer: the "dreaded decline rate" in the Bakken has never bothered me.

Even though the "dreaded decline rate" never bothered me, I was always of the mind that the oil companies would "figure it out." The "production type curves" have borne that out. The decline rates have become less steep; they seem to plateau at higher levels; and once they reach their plateau they tend to stay there "forever." But this is what is unusual about Bakken tight, horizontal, unconventional wells compared to conventional, vertical wells: the former often see a jump in production for any number of reasons, and it appears one should anticipate a jump in production every five to seven years under optimum conditions.

A reader brought this well to my attention. I was initially concerned there may be a typo, and I would want to check this well again in six months to make sure these numbers are accurate. The best way right now to confirm the numbers are accurate would be to hear from a mineral owner who confirms the pay stub correlates with the data in this table.

Having said that, looking at the "bbls water" and "MCF prod" it appears the "bbls oil" is not a typo. I could imagine a typographical error in one cell or one column, but not typographical errors across the entire row.

I have not seen this before -- at least not to this extent -- this is simply incredible.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	80239	79817	59403	166978	161560	5232
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	35021	34992	20965	63199	34891	28128
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	29348	29348	20751	64418	47707	16525
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	32546	32546	23430	64199	64019	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	37721	37739	27337	76684	76498	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	28114	28096	24407	54883	33763	20952
BAKKEN	1-2018	25	19815	19836	29310	23272	17167	5955
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	19133	19112	37519	28094	18592	9316

Total production in July, 2018: 166,978,000 / 6001 = 27,825 boe + 80,239 bbls crude oil = 108,064 boe -- and this is in the eighth month of production. Unprecedented as far as I know. 

This well:

• 33039, A, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, t--; cum 282K 7/18;

Another Patsy well:

• 33041, 606, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston, t1/18; cum 197K 7/18; again, note the amount of natural gas produced in July: 199,349,000 / 6001 = 33,219 boe + 56,235 = 89,454 boe -- again, in the seventh month, and well above what it was producing in any of the previous six months. I think I know why but won't talk about it now. By the way, note the IP of "606."
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	56235	55939	77531	199349	193931	5232
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	24611	24590	27437	77490	77310	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	32023	32023	32201	75564	75378	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	27088	27088	32816	59173	58993	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	31098	31110	34130	59675	59489	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	17673	17661	27460	34539	16920	17451
BAKKEN	1-2018	13	8644	8644	29643	32664	8653	23933

 
The Oasis Patsy wells are tracked here.

Right now, three operators are really impressing me: MRO, Oasis, and Bruin.

I've not talked about Bruin but they have a number of surprisingly good "MHA" wells in Eagle Nest and McGregory Buttes, I believe. I haven't highlighted Bruin because there are simply so many better-than-average wells, but not as big as these MRO and Oasis wells. But Bruin either has found a great, great location or has some really good completion strategies. My hunch: a little of both.