Morning Note Has Been Posted -- Natural Gas Fill Rate Is Not Getting Any Better -- September 27, 2018

Natural gas fill rate from EIA this morning:

Jobs: link here -- 214K (link here)

• last week: 201K
• forecast: 215K
• actual: pending

2Q GDP: link here -- 4.2% (link here)

• consensus: 4.3% -- does anyone here recall a GDP increase of 4.3% in the past two decades?

Real consumer spending --

• consensus: 3.8%

The Bakken is back. Actually it's been back for a year or so, but Rigzone's lead story today -- "Move Over, Permian, The Bakken Is Making A Comeback." Article includes a great photo of an oil well three miles southeast of Williston. [Of course, great news until the Iowa Supreme Court says those four acres belong to the farmer, and the DAPL needs to butt out.]

Totally cool: Total sees $100 oil. Nine out of ten now say we will see $100 oil. Goldman Sachs says oil will stay in the $70/$80 range. oilprice sees $1,000 oil. But doesn't say exactly when.

Oofta! Norway's central bank fears an oil price spike. What, me worry?

Spirit in the Sky, Norman Greenbaum

Oil surges on prospects of supply crunch. Bloomberg. Up about 30 cents on $70 oil. Okay, a little surge.

Grandchildren need shoes. We can live with $75/hour. UK strike canceled.

Got WTI? It turns out that "popular WTI crude options are gaining global appeal." Wow. Who would have thought? Making America great. Again.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, September 27, 2018
34288, 1,126, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 31-30 4H, Oliver, 60 stages, 15.67 million lbs, t4/18; cum 81K 7/18;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	22719	12007
6-2018	21834	12134
5-2018	19136	11212
4-2018	17318	11529

34287, 1,074, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 31-30 3TFH, Oliver, 60 stages; 15.7 million lbs, t4/18; cum 76K 7/18;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	19053	10377
6-2018	20091	12517
5-2018	18177	11612
4-2018	18490	10851

34286, 1,108, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 31-30 2H, Oliver, 60 stages, 15.7 million lbs, t4/18; cum 80K 7/18;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	13292	4579
6-2018	22636	13939
5-2018	21190	12573
4-2018	22095	12589

33579, 2,072, CLR Mountain Gap 11-10H1, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages, 15.3 million lbs, t6/18; cum 71K 7/18;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	34339	23119
6-2018	35544	36896
4-2018	228	0
3-2018	517	0

30827, 1,740, WPX, Behr 19-18HT, Reunion Bay, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t7/18; cum 34K after 31 days;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	33474	6217

29690, drl, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, no production data,


Active rigs:

$72.32😄😄	9/27/2018	09/27/2017	09/27/2016	09/27/2015	09/27/2014
Active Rigs	66	57	32	71	190

RBN Energy: understanding Cheniere's Sabine Pass feedgas helps evaluate future LNG projects.

U.S. LNG exports have climbed from zero three years ago to more than 3 Bcf/d now, and export capacity is set to grow to more than 10 Bcf/d by 2023. With the U.S. emerging as a dominant player in the global LNG landscape, international players are now increasingly susceptible to the day-to-day fluctuations of the U.S. natural gas market — a highly liquid, fungible and interconnected arena that’s propelled by constantly shifting transportation economics. The global LNG market inevitably is also moving toward spot-oriented trading based on short-term economic conditions. Thus, prospective buyers of U.S. LNG considering pre-FID projects increasingly need to understand the ever-changing U.S. gas flow and pricing dynamics. At the same time, U.S. market participants trying to understand how 10 Bcf/d of LNG exports will affect the domestic market also will need to closely track LNG activity, including feedgas flows and prices. In today’s blog — which launches our new LNG Voyager service — we look at how U.S. onshore gas market dynamics are affecting gas supply costs at the Sabine Pass LNG facility, and considers what this might mean for several of the pre-FID projects.

As you’ve probably figured out by now, today’s blog is a naked advertorial for our new LNG Voyager service, a report featuring U.S. natural gas and LNG insights for the global market. Before we get to our analysis, allow us a moment here to provide a bit of background about this new report. Given the significance of the burgeoning U.S. LNG exports market — both to domestic and global trade — we’ve developed a comprehensive fundamentals tool to closely track the metrics, milestones and impacts of these shifts as they unfold.

But as we alluded to above, this is just the beginning. There are four more projects on the way. Additionally, there are more Northeast takeaway pipeline expansions in the works that will allow Marcellus/Utica production to balloon to nearly 40 Bcf/d over the next five years, up from about 29 Bcf/d currently, with a major chunk of that incremental volume targeting LNG export demand along the Gulf Coast (see Dog Days Are Over). Feedgas pipelines are feeling the growing pains of the influx of gas supply, with constraints developing on existing capacity. As the market adapts to the new realities that come with rising export demand, the global LNG market will face growing exposure to the day-to-day volatility of the U.S. gas market.