Canadian CBR, Slawson, The Dockets, And All That Jazz, Page 5 -- September 3, 2018

Locator: 10010B.

 

Updates

Later, 8:05 p.m. CDT: the same reader (see below) provided an update to show the "weekly estimate" vs the "monthly official" data: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/8/31/5006891-15357440372477696_origin.png.  Based on comments from the reader, I was the only one that missed that memo. LOL. I learn something new every day.

Later 7:51 p.m. CDT: a reader wrote:

The Reuters story is not dated.  It is referring to the monthly data, which has high accuracy but is a couple months old.  The weekly bpd is not even really data, but is "current".  But it is just a model (comes from the STEO model).  Weekly estimates can be off by hundreds of thousands of bpd (under or over). 

The reader is very, very correct. The Reuters story is not "dated" -- as in an "old" story. I was mistaken. I learned something new. For those who are confused:

• the official EIA data that comes out monthly lags two months, just like the NDIC data -- lags by two months; 
• on the other hand, the weekly data is an estimate 

Later, 2:18 p.m. CDT: wow, talk about a dated story. The Reuters story is dated August 31, 2018, and perhaps the EIA released the "official" data, but regular readers know the current record is well above 10.674 million bopd set in June. At this EIA link, US crude oil production hit 11.0 million bopd in the 2nd week of July, and has fluctuated since then between 10.9 million bopd and 11.0 million bopd. The next milestone: 12 million bopd. 

Original Post

US crude oil production hits record -- EIA. Record hit due to Texas production - Reuters.  Data points:

• crude oil, US data:
• June, data: US production rose 2%, month-over-month
• June, data: US production, rose 231,000 bopd
• June, data: 10.674 million bopd 
• the agency also revised the May estimate to 10.4 million bopd (up 1,000 bopd from original estimate -- wow, talk about "false precision" -- 1,000 bopd)
• Texas:
• output climbed 165,000 bopd; or 3.9% to 4.4 million bopd
• Gulf of Mexico:
• climbed 10.3%, or 154,000 bopd to 1.7 million bopd 
• US natural gas in the lower 48, June: an all-time high of 90.8 billion cubic feet, 
• May: a prior record; 89.9 bcfd
• Pennsylvania: second biggest gas producing state: 16.5 bcfd in June
• The US has been the world's biggest producer of natural gas since 2009, ahead of Russia.

I did not realize that -- it's been almost ten years since the US took the lead in natural gas production, back in 2009. The US fracking revolution began in 2000; the Bakken boom began in 2007.

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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

Guyana Update

Guyana update, for those concerned about off-shore drilling. From Rigzone:

Following Exxon Mobil Corp.’s latest Hammerhead-1 discovery, the company’s ninth discovery offshore Guyana, it’s believed the country will create the greatest value of any offshore basin since the downturn.

.... the Hammerhead discovery as a “another play-opener” that adds to more than four billion barrels of oil equivalent of reserves through an exploration program that has a current success rate of 82 percent.

... almost 18 prospects left to pursue in the Stabroek block, the project is bound to get bigger. 

[To make this successful,] Guyana must first develop institutional and regulatory framework in order to effectively manage the emerging sector.

Guyana has hit the jackpot. If this small South American nation with a population of about 750,000 can properly manage the billions of dollars of revenue about to come its way, it may become the richest corner of the continent.