Tesla: 2Q18 Earnings -- August 1, 2018

Updates

Later, 5:03 p.m. CDT: after writing the note below, shares popped to $325 -- occurred during a very strong earnings call -- Elon Musk says Tesla will show a profit every quarter going forward.

Original Post

Shares:

• AAPL: pops 5% after earnings release
• TSLA: pops 5% after earnings release -- shorts will get squeezed; now at $315; could go to $325 once if shorts squeeze

Data points:

• 2.2 billion in cash -- more than expected
• $739 million: cash burn for the quarter; not sure if this is cash burn from operations only or if it's total cash burn -- see this post; since 2010, there have been only three quarters (maybe four quarters) with a cash burn worse than this just reported; that's 34 total quarters; only 3 (maybe 4) have had worse cash burns; see definition of "free cash flow" below;
• EPS loss: $3.06 vs forecast of $2.92
• revenue: $4 billion vs forecast of $3.92 (is it just me, or is a "round number of exactly $4 billion in revenue" a bit curious? Why not $4.01 or $3.98? Maybe the source rounded the number; need to see SEC filings;
• CAPEX guidance: maybe halving original plans; will cut back on more assembly lines; will make it up in existing assembly lines

See this site for definition of "free cash flow."

Tesla free cash flow at this link.

As noted above, I do not know if the negative cash flow of $739 million is from operations only or includes debt servicing. After 1Q18 earnings were reported, the graph had to be re-adjusted: Tesla had provided free cash flow results based on operations only; an alert reader noted that negative cash from interest payments was not included. See this post.

Too bad "Montana Skeptic" has quit tweeting (after harassment and doxxing from Elon Musk) -- we will have to wait and see exactly what "the truth" is.

CNBC: I caught some of the CNBC analysis. It was quite amazing how "lenient" the reporting was -- pretty much (again) giving Tesla "a pass." Quite the opposite when CNBC commented on Apple yesterday.

But it comes down to this:

• next quarter, whether Tesla shows a profit -- Elon Musk says every quarter going forward will show a profit

Tesla deliveries for July, 2018, will be reported later this week.

Tesla bonds bounced back a little -- flirting with 90 cents on the dollar.