Making Mexico Great Again -- August 17, 2018

Wow, I'm in a great mood. My seasonal allergies are kicking in but other than that ...

... I just got back from a 8-mile bike sprint. I took my usual 3-mile "relaxing" ride to Starbucks early this a.m. I got my blogging done and then had a "brain storm." I jumped on my bike and rode as fast as I could to Schwab in Southlake (TX), made an appointment for next week, and then continued the sprint back home.

First thing I see is this link sent to me by Don: NAFTA deal on track -- could bolster US - Mexican natural gas trade. Anyone who has been following this story and politics in Mexico, this is an incredible story on so many levels. From the article:

After some strong rhetoric on both sides, it now looks like the Trump administration and Mexican counterparts could have a preliminary NAFTA deal by the end of the month. This would be quite timely given that Mexico's newly elected President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, will take office in December and has indicated he would respect renegotiations. In particular for my field, a bigger and better NAFTA would boost the growing U.S.-Mexican energy relationship built on free-trade.

As the go-to fuel, natural gas will increasingly be the story between the two nations. Mexico has accounted for the bulk of U.S. gas exports, with 90% coming from pipelines and the rest from LNG. The U.S. now accounts for 60-65% of Mexico's total gas supply. Since its domestic output comes along with crude oil extraction as "associated gas," Mexico's gas production has fallen 30-40% since 2010 alone, as its oil production has been spiraling since the 2004 peak.

And now, with AMLO wanting to ban fracking, U.S. gas could gain even more market share in Mexico. Although fracking isn't expected to be a significant source of domestic supply for at least five years, Mexico does have great shale potential: an EIA-reported recoverable shale gas resource of 550 trillion cubic feet. AMLO will serve just one 6-year term but has made answering the question of "When Will Mexico Start To Frack For Natural Gas?" even more difficult to gauge.

Mexico's goal is to expand oil production by 30% or so to ~2.6 million b/d, but the coming stream of new gas supply that would bring won't significantly reduce the need for more U.S. supply anytime soon. Just recently, as new pipeline capacity has been added and some lines became fully operational, pipeline imports into Mexico are breaking the 5 Bcf/d mark for the first time. That's over 6% of all current U.S. natural gas production  - and could reach over 6 Bcf/d next year. Ultimately, without the Mexican gas outlet for U.S. sellers, our prices would be ~40% lower, which again, could do more harm than good.

More at the link.

Now this.

I wrote this on the blog a couple of days ago:

My wife has signed up for a financial management course. It's a free course. Won't cost her a thing. She says she doesn't know anything about managing money. Actually she does quite well. I will be her instructor. The financial management course will be to show her where our assets are and how to access them after I die ... which, of course, could be sooner than later.

A reader noted that and suggested this video in response:

Taps
That suggestion can be interpreted at least two different ways: one humorous, one more serious. I took the suggestion as a very humorous suggestion.

But. having just talked with Schwab -- and, no this is not a paid advertisement -- I think I have a four-point plan that will work just fine.

Reveille Wow, what a great country.