For Newbies: The Recently Fracked Burr Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- August 25, 2018

Much to learn from these recently fracked Burr Federal wells.

This is the production profile of an older Burr Federal well in the area that has just come back on line. According to FracFocus this well was not re-fracked:

• 30503, 759, CLR, Burr Federal 14-26H, Sanish, API - 33-061-03522, t12/15; cum 249K 6/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	18590	18665	23387	20371	13799	6159
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	26794	26888	31162	26753	22629	3869
BAKKEN	4-2018	25	23386	23184	20588	23079	13852	8970
BAKKEN	3-2018	5	1170	1045	1113	2537	1409	1037
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	63	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	1	87	410	67	79	23	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	21	3363	3491	2604	5822	4772	719
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	6189	6206	4290	8784	5960	2502
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	6132	5987	2823	7171	6443	417
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	6370	6177	2726	5471	5195	83
BAKKEN	4-2017	16	2725	2683	1733	2729	2610	36

I track these kinds of wells over at "wells of interest" but there are now so many of them, I will add to the list simply by exception.

This is a phenomenon that is not being reported by "anyone else."

From what I can tell, analysts consider this phenomenon uninteresting to follow. Likewise, it appears that analysts don't think DUCs are worth tracking.

It should be noted that Lynn Helms predicts a huge production surge in North Dakota "this fall." The official numbers lag data from the field by two months, so if the surge occurs in October/November, we won't see the official numbers until December/January, and those numbers won't be reflected in earnings statements until after the 4Q18 has closed out. Generally speaking, companies like Whiting and Continental Resources will give us an indication of how things are going in their monthly corporate presentations prior to conference calls.

By the way, the well above was originally fracked in mid-to-late 2015. What was the original production like after the first frack?

BAKKEN	7-2016	31	12238	12029	7043	11955	11729	226
BAKKEN	6-2016	24	6787	6798	4592	7935	7531	404
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	8051	8081	4826	9950	7228	2722
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	12616	12754	7201	13045	10452	2593
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	16348	16510	10505	15553	12689	2864
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	14876	14803	12255	12575	9642	2933
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	16503	16910	13012	13940	4425	9515
BAKKEN	12-2015	22	12864	11974	9483	20109	40	20069
BAKKEN	11-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	1	657	657	0	1480	0	1480

By the way, not being talked about is the near-100% success rate of fracks. This is not trivial. New operators had a devil of a time in the early days -- they put in a nice well, drilling to depth, and then the frack went back. Even on simple vertical wells, novice operators can "screw" up a stimulation.

The fact that Bakken operators are literally scoring almost a 100% success rate of stimulation / fracking is incredible in and of itself. Staggering. The Bakken operators have set the bar so high analysts have now accepted that as the "norm." To say the least, this is neither trivial nor should it be taken for granted.

There must be a 100 folks involved in the successful fracking of a well, and if any one of them screws up, it can literally mean a failed frack. The 100 folks: all the way back to the geologist to the trucker delivering the sand.

By the way, open book test: how many more years of drilling is there in the Bakken if the price of oil supports "full" development of the Bakken?

The answer is in one of studies linked this past week.