Neil Armstrong becomes the first man to step on the moon -- July 20, 1969.
Almost to the day, 49 years later, the US set another milestone: for the first time ever, the US produced 11 million bopd.
In July, 1969, when Armstrong was bouncing on the moon, the US was producing 9.295 million bopd -- source.
Between 1969 and 2018, the low point seems to have been 3.971 million bbls in September, 2008.
In ten years the US has gone from less than 4 million bopd to more than 11 million bopd, and is exporting 3 million bopd (because it's the wrong kind of oil).
And that milestone, despite a takeaway capacity issue in the biggest play in the US right now, the Permian.
US supply of crude oil: 23.4 days. For newbies, it's been as high as 34 days (March, 2017). For oil bulls, one would like to see the "historical sweet spot" of about 19 - 21 days. We've talked about this on numerous occasions. Trump is considering releasing oil from the SPR: at best that will extend the supply of crude oil to 25.3 days, maybe 25.4 days, all things being equal.
Global supply (search: oil global days supply) of crude oil, from the EIA: 60 days.
Saudi Arabia has yet to recover from their "trillion-dollar mistake." Why? Because: investors in oil don't care about crude's price drop -- the writer got it exactly right --
Crude prices are down yet European oil companies are weathering the slump, signaling a change in fortunes for last year’s laggards.
While benchmark Brent crude has fallen more than 9 percent over the past week, the Stoxx Europe 600 Oil & Gas index has retreated just 3.9 percent. The reason? Oil companies’ discipline during the 2014-2016 crash [or as I call it, the "Saudi Arabian trillion-dollar mistake] proved to investors they can now easily withstand such crude-price corrections.
“Oil companies have done a good job adjusting their budgets to the lower oil-price environment and their shareholders are now benefiting from that,” said Ahmed Ben Salem, an analyst at Oddo Bhf. “The resilience is mainly linked to the fact that oil companies have an oil cash breakeven as low as $50 per barrel and their budget and share-buyback plans are based on $60.”Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.
Average price of Bakken last month according to the NDIC: slightly more than $61/bbl. Break-even price for oil in some of the better Bakken is less than $25/bbl (previously posted).
trouble is, we dont know if we REALLY hit 11 million bopd yet or not, because some clever character at the EIA decided to round all lower 48 production figures to the nearest 100,000 bopd at the beginning of June...all we know for sure is that Alaskan production rose by 50,000 bopd, after dropping by 45,000 a few weeks back, and that was enough to boost the rounded national total by 100,000 bopd this week...
ReplyDeleteFacts no longer matter. What matters is what people believe. But I noticed that, also, the figures are incredibly consistent -- it's clear that everything for the past few weeks have been rounded. Very, very irritating. To say the least.
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