The Economic Gap Between The US And The EU Widens -- June 15, 2018

Updates

June 15, 2018: another in-depth article. She is a lame-duck leader. She won't be re-elected. As long as she remains in power, she will drag down Germany, and, by extension, the EU.

Later, 10:27 a.m. CDT: Angela Merkel's government may collapse due to her stance on immigration.

Original Post 

Latest 2Q18 GDP forecast: 4.8 percent — June 14, 2018.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.8 percent on June 14, up from 4.6 percent on June 8.

After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent.

I haven't updated "The Big Stories" in a long, long time. My first post at that page was dated May 21, 2013 and its thesis was how the US energy revolution and how Europe's misguided policies will widen the economic gap between the US and Europe.

Re-posting:

From The Wall Street Journal: "strong spending data show US economy chugging ahead of Europe and Asia. Second-quarter growth on track to exceed a 4% pace -- the fastest of any quarter in almost four years. The gap between the US and the EU widens. Canada is not even part of the discussion.

It's interesting to scroll the big stories at the first link above. It is amazing how much has happened in the past five years.

Buried in that long list of items is this one: Europe at a tipping point. Dated May 18, 2013, it predicted the toll renewable energy would have on Europe. From the blog, April 7, 2013: Germany looking to stop wind energy initiatives sooner than later; wind energy has killed Germany's manufacturing base -- Bloomberg. And then this, yesterday, Europe on the ropes:

Voters across Europe have lost faith in politics partly because of “unachievable targets” on renewable energy, said German Energy Minister Peter Altmaier, who rejected calls from a group of other EU countries to boost the share of renewables to 33-35% of the bloc’s energy mix by 2030. Altmaier made the comments during an on-the-record exchange between the 28 EU energy ministers, who are gathered in Luxembourg today (11 June) for a meeting of the Energy Council.

Remember: Germany is the economic engine driving the EU. The only item completely missing on "The Big Stories" page: the renewable debacle in Australia. I completely missed that one.

*******************************

Back to the Bakken

$66.86→	6/15/2018	06/15/2017	06/15/2016	06/15/2015	06/15/2014
Active Rigs	62	56	27	77	187

RBN Energy: Cushing pipelines filling up and the impact on price differentials. Archived.

Crude oil pipelines out of Cushing are filling up. With U.S. crude production approaching the 11 MMb/d mark, more and more production from the Rockies, Midcontinent and Permian is funneling into the Cushing, OK, trading hub. It’s getting increasingly difficult to get all of that volume to the major demand center at the Gulf Coast.

The two major pipelines out of Cushing — Seaway and Marketlink — are near full capacity and differentials are responding as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing is now trading at a $7.60/bbl discount to Magellan East Houston (MEH) at the Gulf. Today, we look at some of the major factors affecting the WTI-MEH spread, space on major pipelines between the two points, and potential implications going forward.

I was disappointed the blog did not have a graphic showing storage at Cushing. But other than that, a great post.

There must be scores of posts regarding this story on the blog but it seems the Cushing story reached its high-point back in 2015. One typical post at this site. The tea leaves suggesting the price of oil is set to rise could be very, very wrong.

This is what concerns me: the MEH-WTI differential chart at the RBN Energy post.