GDP forecast: latest forecast: 4.7 percent — June 19, 2018.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent on June 19, down from 4.8 percent on June 14. The nowcast of second-quarter real GDP growth decreased 0.2 percentage points after the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production release on Friday, June 15, as a decline in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 10.9 percent to 9.2 percent more than offset a slight increase in the nowcast of real consumer spending growth from 3.6 percent to 3.7 percent. After this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 0.3 percent to 2.9 percent.
i had a long comment on your post about this last week that disappeared....basically, i said 'wait till next week'. all the product supplied numbers get screwy around Memorial Day; check the spreadsheet you had posted then. product inventory builds were the highest in nearly ten years, as wholesalers and retailers drew from their own inventories (which are not part of EIA data)...last week's record high was a rebound from that, & this week is a return to normal..
ReplyDeleteI found the problem regarding the comments. I am now getting all those comments. Nothing was lost. See note and reply below.
DeleteNB: Memorial Day week, biggest inventory build since 2008:
ReplyDeletehttps://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/june62018oiloilproductssuppliesasofjune1.jpg
what i wrote about that:
the amount of gasoline supplied to US markets, often seen as an indicator of our consumption, fell by 713,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 1st, while the amount of distillates supplied to US markets dropped by 817,000 barrels per day over the same period...checking other "product supplied" metrics, we find that jet fuel supplied to US markets fell by 163,000 barrels per day, that propane/propylene supplied to US markets fell by 326,000 barrels per day, that residual oil supplied to US markets fell by 12,000 barrels per day, and that other oils supplied to US markets fell by 400,000 barrels per day...with deliveries to US wholesalers down, inventories held by the oil product producers, whose refineries continued to operate, naturally rose...but again, this appears to be a function of product distribution around the holiday; gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel wholesalers and retailers built their inventories in the weeks before the holiday, and hence their deliveries of product were slack during the holiday week...this is evident in the historical record, when for instance, the largest weekly increase in oil and oil products inventories last year was also during the week of Memorial Day, when inventories increased by 15,471,000 barrels, which was nearly a 9 year high at that time...
Excellent, excellent point. Much, much appreciated. I understand exactly what you are saying. Thank you.
Delete