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Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Is The Market Telegraphing The Government's Decision On The ATT / Time Warner Merger? -- June 12, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Updates

Later, 4:36 p.m. EDT: NASDAQ closes at 7,703. All-time high. 

Later, 10:52 a.m. CDT: NASDAQ hit an all-time high. Hit 7,700.


Original Post

8:30 a.m. EDT, June 12, 2018: S&P down 0.75 (much improved); another site suggests S&P has actually turned green (time delay explains the difference); T is now up more than 1%; TWX is now up 0.26% pre-market; has the word gotten out?
  • 9:22 a.m. EDT: T up almost exactly 1%; TWX up slightly, almost flat, but not red 
  • 1:20 p.m. EDT: T turned negative -- ever so slightly, but red just the same; TWX now almost down 1%; tea leaves suggest the deal will not be approved or terms set by the judge will be onerous 
  • 4:27 p.m. EDT: after being negative most of the day, T and TWX are now both green; T up about 1/2 percent; TWX up about 3/4 percent; unless the judge has decided not to release his decision today, my hunch is the decision comes immediately after the market closes -- in about two minutes; with both T and TWX turning positive in the last half hour, the tea leaves suggest the decision has been "leaked" at least to some; phones are probably ringing all over Wall Street right now; 
  • 4:36 p.m. EDT: analysts across the board are suggesting that ATT will win; we'll see; T up 1.75% and TWX up 1.23% -- the best so far today;
  • ATT wins
    • T after-hours: down 2%.
    • TWX after-hours: up 4.5%
Poll: closing out the poll -- will the government approve the ATT - Time Warner merger?
  • yes: 53%
  • no: 47%
  • that's about how I feel -- absolutely no idea what the outcome will be
Futures: it looks like S&P 500 futures -- has just turned green -- up 1.25 points.

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It will be interesting to follow the number of views.
  • 9:30 a.m. CDT, June 12, 2018: 450 views
  • 9:45 a.m. CDT, June 12, 2018: 750 views

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