Is The Market Telegraphing The Government's Decision On The ATT / Time Warner Merger? -- June 12, 2018

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Updates

Later, 4:36 p.m. EDT: NASDAQ closes at 7,703. All-time high. 

Later, 10:52 a.m. CDT: NASDAQ hit an all-time high. Hit 7,700.

Original Post

8:30 a.m. EDT, June 12, 2018: S&P down 0.75 (much improved); another site suggests S&P has actually turned green (time delay explains the difference); T is now up more than 1%; TWX is now up 0.26% pre-market; has the word gotten out?

• 9:22 a.m. EDT: T up almost exactly 1%; TWX up slightly, almost flat, but not red 
• 1:20 p.m. EDT: T turned negative -- ever so slightly, but red just the same; TWX now almost down 1%; tea leaves suggest the deal will not be approved or terms set by the judge will be onerous 
• 4:27 p.m. EDT: after being negative most of the day, T and TWX are now both green; T up about 1/2 percent; TWX up about 3/4 percent; unless the judge has decided not to release his decision today, my hunch is the decision comes immediately after the market closes -- in about two minutes; with both T and TWX turning positive in the last half hour, the tea leaves suggest the decision has been "leaked" at least to some; phones are probably ringing all over Wall Street right now; 
• 4:36 p.m. EDT: analysts across the board are suggesting that ATT will win; we'll see; T up 1.75% and TWX up 1.23% -- the best so far today;
• ATT wins
  • T after-hours: down 2%.
  • TWX after-hours: up 4.5%

Poll: closing out the poll -- will the government approve the ATT - Time Warner merger?

• yes: 53%
• no: 47%
• that's about how I feel -- absolutely no idea what the outcome will be

Futures: it looks like S&P 500 futures -- has just turned green -- up 1.25 points.

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It will be interesting to follow the number of views.

• 9:30 a.m. CDT, June 12, 2018: 450 views
• 9:45 a.m. CDT, June 12, 2018: 750 views