Pages

Monday, June 11, 2018

Free Cash Flow And Three US Majors -- Idle Chatter -- For Investors Only -- June 11, 2018

The problem with this Motley Fool story is that it:
  • doesn't discuss analysts' view of future oil prices leading to their conclusions in this article;
  • doesn't discuss oil prices at all which prevents "those playing at home" to better assess the article;
  • doesn't discuss hedging and how the majors have protected themselves; and,
  • doesn't say to what degree that time is less of a factor or more of a factor now that the year is about half over
With regard to the price of oil, I think we can make these assumptions:
  • most oil companies have hedges in place for the rest of the year
  • if the price of oil drops, those with hedges should do better than expected
  • if the price of oil rises, those with hedges might do worse on paper, but overall better than expected
  • bottom line: with the year half over, and hedges in place, analysts should have a range of "free cash flow estimates for the three majors discussed
So having said all that, this is the bottom line from the contributor to the story at the link:
  • XOM: the writer links to another article, which I did not read; does not provide assessment of XOM in this article except to say it won't do as well as COP or CVX
  • CVX: shares at $126 today could go to $145 within a year; a 15% profit in addition to paying a 3.5% dividend that's nearly as good as Exxon's 3.9%
  • COP: at $70 today, could rise to $82/share based on free cash flow; a 17% profit over the next year; it has a 1.6% dividend yield
So, comparing CVX and COP:
  • 15% vs 17% profit over the next year (possibly)
  • 1.6% vs 3.5% dividend
  • in 2015, when the price of crude oil plummeted, one company cut its dividend by two-thirds (paying one-third what it did before the crash); the other company maintained its dividend
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.