WTI Could Hit $85 By July -- Dan Yergin -- May 16, 2018

Hey, this is pretty cool. Earlier this week, I posted a new poll at the suggestion of a reader, whether WTI would hit $85 by August, this year, 2018.

Today, this article by one of the experts, Dan Yergin: "oil could hit $85 by July."

• oil prices could hit $85 a barrel by July, when demand for gasoline is high, said Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit.
• Yergin is particularly concerned about falling output in Venezuela, and says Middle East tension may also keep the oil price rally going.
• demand for gasoline could begin to fall if prices rise much beyond current levels near $3 a gallon, according to Yergin.

Comment:

• it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil, so I won't
• Venezuela's "story" is already baked into the data; those traders in WTI / global oil who are not aware of what's going on in Venezuela a) are going to get slammed; and, b) shouldn't be trading in oil
• it doesn't take much of an expert to say "demand for gasoline could begin to fall if prices rise much beyond current levels near $3 a gallon"

Having said that, Dan Yergin probably knows this business better than anyone. I would be curious what his thoughts are regarding oil reserves, whether they matter.