The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+64 -- May 3, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Disclaimer: I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors. I often see things that do not exist; I read quickly and miss important points. Sometimes it takes me days (maybe even weeks) to see where I was wrong.

TSLA: how low will it go? Down $19 (over 6%) in pre-market trading. The Dow that had been positive, is now down over a hundred points.

US exports: for newbies, this is an important distinction -- when "they" say the US will be "the world's top oil exporter," they mean "the US will be world's top exporter of oil AND refined products." Huge difference. Exported both is great. But exported refined products is a huge value-added advantage. US crude oil exports are actually quite small in the big scheme of things.

Meme: Libya is the "new" swing producer. LOL.

One conservative estimate of the effect of this chaos [in Libya] on oil production is for a 200,000-bpd decline. This is an amount substantial enough to push prices higher, especially now that global supply is tightening thanks to OPEC’s efforts, but mostly on the back of Venezuela’s strife.

Comment: seriously? This amount is substantial enough ... seriously? North Dakota alone could see a production increase of 200,000 bopd as early as this summer.

Real estate: this is a story in which I would have absolutely no interest except for the fact that while bicycling on the northeast side of Grapevine (TX) a few months ago, I cycled past a Berkshire-branded real estate office. Until then I had no idea that Warren was up to his gills in real estate.

The Omaha conglomerate was the nation’s second-largest residential real-estate brokerage last year, making Berkshire Hathaway a presence on neighborhood yard signs from Los Angeles to New York. It has franchised the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices name to 1,330 offices and more than 45,000 agents.

Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive, wants his franchise brokerage business, HomeServices of America, to get even bigger—and the sterling Berkshire Hathaway brand is an asset. But further expansion could also bring more visibility and risk for the Berkshire brand. Historically, its biggest consumer-facing companies—brands like Geico, Dairy Queen and Fruit of the Loom—haven’t used the parent company’s name.

Comment: yes, I was surprised that the subsidiary used the "Berkshire" brand.

Too greedy: something tells me Russia is about to say "enough, already." Link here.

OPEC and Russia seem determined to keep on cutting production even after their campaign to rebalance world oil markets achieved its main target. The primary justification for doing so looks shaky.

Sixteen months of output curbs have all but eliminated surplus oil inventories and prices are near a three-year high.

But Saudi Arabia says the “mission is not accomplished yet” and is urging fellow producers to keep output restrained to fulfill a new priority: encouraging companies around the world to invest more in future supply.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn’t the only voice warning about a lack of spending on new projects. Influential figures from the International Energy Agency to the boss of oil major Total SA have warned a supply shortage could emerge early next decade after a period of deep cuts in spending. Under-investment could push prices as high as $300 a barrel within a few years, prominent hedge-fund manager Pierre Andurand said this week.

Comment: shortly after that announcement (in a tweet), the tweet was deleted. "No one" seriously believes oil will go to $300. Maybe Pierre accientally typed an extra zero or misplaced the decimal. LOL. I find it unbecoming of Bloomberg to "re-tweet" this nonsense.