Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- May 30, 2018

I don't know if anyone is paying attention but there was a sudden change in the Bakken during the past week or so. Every weekend, I post the wells that will be coming off the confidential list the following week. For the past year or so, there was an average of 1.75 wells coming off the confidential list each day. This week, the average jumped to 4.25 wells coming off the confidential list each day. At least that's my perception: I did not do a real arithmetic check but I bet I'm not too far off.

The second thing I noticed, all of a sudden fewer wells were going to DUC status after being released from the confidential list. Today, for example, not one DUC, of the five wells coming off the confidential list. I can't recall the last time there were no DUCs on a list of five wells coming off the confidential list.

Third, the IPs are not monsters, but they are incredibly consistent, all representing very good wells.

Fourth: to date, we haven't seen a drop in the number of DUCs or inactive wells on the monthly Director's Cut. I expect to see the number of DUCs dropping but it's possible the number of inactive wells will stay steady or possibly even increase. More and more wells (because there are more and more wells) are going to inactive status when new wells are being fracked.

We won't know until August whether June production data will hit an all-time record, but Lynn Helms has forecast that. Although we won't get the official "preliminary" data until August and the official "final" data until September for the June production numbers, we will get very good estimates by mid-June. Stay tuned.

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Flashback

Deficits Don't Matter

A simple google search reminds us the Paul Krugman, a really, really smart guy, argued that "US deficits don't matter."

I haven't seen Paul Krugman talking about this in a long, long time. Only because it's near the top of the google returns, I will link this one, and ironically, it's from The New York Times, Paul Krugman, January 9, 2017. Pretty funny.

By the way, two countries not running a deficit: communist China and Germany. Not sure if that's entirely accurate, but that's my perception. Or world view. Pocahontas praised communist China yesterday for its way of government. Posted earlier. Color me shocked? No.