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Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Apple Smashes Estimates -- May 1, 2018

Updates

May 2, 2018: Apple's 1Q18 profits -- just this one quarter -- was greater than total profit generated by Amazon over ten years.

Biggest threat to Apple: Amazon. Alexa kicking Siri's butt. "Hey, Siri."

Original Post

Analysts and discussion on CNBC immediately after release: lukewarm; ho-hum.

What everyone is missing: how the discussion would have gone had Apple reported earnings "in-line."

Worse: what everyone is missing -- how the discussion would have gone had Apple missed earnings by one penny -- although that would have given us a buying opportunity.

16% increase in quarterly dividend.

Buyback: $100 billion stock buyback.

AAPL shares surge after-hours -- up $8 in after-hours trading, almost up 5% in after-hours trading.

Links, stories to follow. First link, minutes after Apple releases earnings.

Beats on top and bottom lines.

Margins: 38%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Disclaimer: I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors. I often see things that do not exist; I read quickly and miss important points. Sometimes it takes me days (maybe even weeks) to see where I was wrong.

Immediately after the earnings released, CNBC talking head: "the beat was not all that great." Wow. What a doofus.

The analyst needs to look at what "bears" were suggesting. Not only did they do better than what the "bears" were suggesting, the numbers were much better than expected.

January 20, 2018, my "back-of-the-cocktail-napkin" numbers. Special dividend did not occur, but stock buyback of $100 billion is greater than the $71 billion forecast.

Current dividend: $2.52 x 1.16 = $2.92 dividend going forward.  To 73 cents quarterly (yup, exactly right -- $2.92, annual).

iPhone X a huge success and some analysts thought iPhone X sales were so bad the line was going to be discontinued.

EPS: $2.73 vs estimate of $2.67.

Revenue: $61.14 billion vs estimate of $60.82 billion.

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Finally, a talking head on CNBC is really, really impressed with the numbers.

Next analyst: A "good" quarter but buyers can wait; too many unknowns; feels he can get it cheaper -- this analyst simply does not get it. He probably can get it cheaper. But it was more than a "good" quarter.

Amazing what folks will pay for TSLA and then diss AAPL. LOL.

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Earnings transcript here.

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